BUILDING A LINEUP FOR MLB DFS - WHAT SHOULD YOU LOOK FOR?
- RotoRiley
- Jul 30, 2020
- 10 min read
I love baseball. There's no other sport like it, especially in DFS. You could be towards the end of the slate, 12 points out of the cash lines then boom.. your last player in his last at bat puts you in the money with a home run. I have many stories of similar events happening but I won't get into it right now. Just know that I have a special place in my heart for a small lefty by the name of Ryan Schimpf. It's not always rainbows and sunshine though. It can be very frustrating watching your guys at the plate and they just look lost. Or your starting pitcher who just can't find the strike zone to save his life. It's not a sport that's easy to just jump into if you don't really have any experience with it. If you're a beginner in MLB DFS (or any sport for that matter), just start small. Do a lot of observing. If you don't cash, look at the lineups that did. What did they do differently? If you do cash, look at your lineup and determine what move(s) made you successful.
In this article, I'm going to be going through the process of building a lineup for MLB DFS. What should you do? What shouldn't you do? For some of you, this might be stuff you already know but perhaps it can be a refresher for all of us as we attack the rest of this short season. Thank you for reading, and enjoy!
*Note - Fangraphs has countless numbers and information on every player in the MLB.*
Game Theory
This applies to all sports in DFS. Look at a game and ask yourself "What do I think is going to happen in this game?". If you don't really have a clue then take a look at projections. What's the O/U of this game? Are they expecting a high run total or will it be a pitcher's duel? How far will these two pitchers go and is their bullpen good? That's just the tip of the ice burg with how many questions you can be asking yourself.
Sometimes, it's right there in front of your face. For example, the Yankees could be playing the Orioles at Yankee stadium and the O's are starting one of their under-developed pitchers who just doesn't stand a chance followed by their mediocre bullpen. Don't overthink it too much. If you can make a strong lineup with 3 or 4 of those Yankees bats then do it! If you decide against it then you'll be in pain later when New York puts up 11 runs and you have no shot of cashing because everyone else ate the chalk. I've been there many times and it doesn't feel good.
This also holds true for your pitcher. If you want to assure that your pitcher will end up getting the W for those extra points then look for one who's team is overall in a good spot. Jacob deGrom (NYM) is not only known for being one of the best (if not, THE best) pitchers in baseball but he's also known for not getting as many wins as he should. This is starting to change as the Mets hitting improves but for the past few years, they were unable to score runs during Jacob's starts. However, this was more of a coincidence but it just shows that even the best pitchers are capable of missing out on those extra win points.
*Side note - I really hope the MLB changes their way of determining which pitcher gets the win/loss.*
In conclusion, game theory is summarized by that one important question: "What do I think is going to happen in this game?"
Stacks
I briefly just touched on stacking in the "Game Theory" section but it's such a big part of this sport so let's dive a little deeper into it. Before I get into this, I want to give you my take on these phrases:
Game Stack - Filling your lineup with at least 5 players from the same game.
Mini Game Stack - 3 or 4 players from the same game.
Team Stack - At least 3 players from one team.
Mini Team Stack - Usually 2 players from the same team.
These are just how I define these terms, as some other people have different versions of them.
Stacking is the most common way to build a lineup in MLB and for good reason. In NFL, you want players who are going to get more touches/targets in a shootout. In NBA, you want players who are going to play more minutes/have more usage in a fast pace game. MLB is very similar in the sense that you're looking for more at bats and runs. DFS is about odds and I think my lineup a few days ago is a great example of this.
In this lineup, I want you to focus on my Boston stack. While making this lineup, my thought process was to get four Red Sox hitters because I thought they were in a good spot to put some runs up on the board. Well I ended up with two goose eggs from that stack as the Red Sox only managed to put up four runs. However, even with two zeros in the stack, I was able to walk away with a combined 31 points from them. That's not the best result from a stack but when the team only puts up four runs, I'll take that with a smile on my face.
You're probably thinking "Okay well you got pretty lucky that two of your four hitters hit a home run." and you're right! I was lucky to get that result. However, I also gave myself the odds to do it. Putting four hitters from the same team in my lineup gave me a higher chance to have a part of the action even if they didn't put a crooked number on the scoreboard. You're likely to get some points if your team stack is at least scoring a few runs. I also picked the players who I felt were in the best spot in that lineup (Pillar & Vazquez vs lefty) which is very important. It was able to save me from a failed stack.
Most of the time when stacking, you'll want to grab hitters at the top of their order. A lot of people like to get players that are batting 1-4 or 2-5. This will increase not only your chances of more at bats but your odds of getting more points. It's a great feeling when your 3 hitter hits a two run double which scored your 1 and 2 hitters. However, you don't always have to do this. In fact, there might be situations where you just want the big lefties so you end up with the 1,4,5,7 hitters (or something along those lines).
There is risk with big stacks. I have been in a situation where my stack ended up getting no-hit (Sean Manaea 4/21/2018 vs Red Sox) which will guarantee you losing money. If the opposing pitcher is dealing then you better hope the rest of your lineup can bail you out. There will be plenty of slates where stacking isn't the right move so don't feel like you have to do it every day.
I would say that "Mini Stacks" are the most common thing you will find in my lineups. It gives you the safety where it won't necessarily kill you if they get shutout but you also won't miss out on the points if their team ends up going off. I think a good example of a mini stack that I had happened a few years ago when I rostered two lefty killers (Castellanos & Hicks) against Jon Lester. It ended up working perfectly as they both homered and scored the only two runs for the Tigers.
Lastly, we have game stacking. With how the MLB is today, game stacking has become more in play. We're seeing scores that are 12-9, 10-7, 13-8 ... you get the point. Between the newly manufactured baseballs and hitters focusing more on launch angle, hitting dominates the sport and I don't think anyone is mad about it (except for pitchers). Game stacking really just means you like match up on both sides. It's not like basketball where it has to do with pace or football where both defenses are bad. If you like bats on both teams then it just ends up being defined as a game stack. Also, very fun to watch a game when you have that many players in it.
Stacking is a big part of this sport so really try your best to not miss out on it.
Matchups - Hitters
There's a few different things that come into factor here. The first thing that I'll quickly go over is batter vs pitcher history (BVP). I don't want to spend too much time on this because you shouldn't rely on this info to make your lineups. The only time that I will make this part of my decision is if the numbers are really crazy. Yesterday we had a situation where Whit Merrifield was up against Matthew Boyd and the numbers were just too crazy for me to ignore. 20 FOR 39 with eight extra base hits is enough for me to make that decision. If the sample size isn't that big then don't pay any mind to it.
I would say that one of the biggest thing I pay attention to is splits.
Situation: Lefty on the mound and you want a specific right handed hitter.
What's this hitter's ISO (isolated power) vs lefties? Mix that with the pitcher's numbers against right handed hitters and determine if that's a matchup you're willing to take a chance on.
Being "hot" is a real thing in baseball. Sometimes a hitter gets to a point where he's just seeing the ball so well and is hitting everything in sight. Fanduel and Draftkings know this and will keep increasing the price of a player if he keeps producing. That's why I try to catch a hitter on a hot streak before he's too expensive for my lineup. Remember that FD and DK are a day behind when it comes to pricing players so you will come across guys that are way too cheap or way too expensive. If that minimum price player is hot and everyone else is going to use him then it might be wise for you to include him in your player pool. This will also allow you to pay up elsewhere while also not getting killed if he doesn't produce.
Matchups - Pitchers
When picking your pitcher(s), you're looking at the whole opposing lineup and how they matchup against your guy. I wouldn't recommend getting too crazy with pitchers because you're more likely to find a value hitter than a value pitcher. You have cheap hitters available that at least have the chance to do what the expensive bats can. This isn't the case with pitchers. It is very rare to see the cheapest pitcher on the slate come close to doing what the big boys can. If you're scrolling down to one of the last SP available then you're most likely also going to be passed up by everyone who played Gerrit Cole against the Mariners. I will say that if you want to do this in a gpp in order to stack some expensive bats then I'm not against it.
Like hitters, pitchers can also get hot as well. As I mentioned before, DFS has a lot to do with odds so when you're choosing your pitcher, get the guy who will give you the best odds at hitting value for his price tag. I often pair a high K/9 pitcher against a team with a lot of aggressive hitters who strikeout a lot. I know that's obvious but like I said before, the right play is often the most obvious.
There are times where I do fade the pitcher with the highest projected ownership. If you found something that really makes you want to avoid the chalk then there's nothing wrong with doing it. As long as you have reasons and a thesis then give yourself the green light to be contrarian and give yourself an edge on the rest of the field. It's YOUR lineup and through the years I've learned that my gut is often right.
Weather / Ballpark factors
This is my favorite part. This is where baseball really separates itself from every other sport. I don't want to push you guys to spend so much time and effort on this because there are people that do fine with bare minimum effort towards it. However, you really need to at least check weather for each game before locks. The worst feeling is when you entered a lineup just to find out that the game got PPD. Luckily for all of us, we have meteorologists that are on top of that stuff all day and night. I recommend giving a follow to @DFSMLBWeather on twitter. Mark does a great job and I honestly couldn't make my lineups without him.
Baseball is so cool because no ballpark is the same. They're all different and unique in their own ways. Therefore, they all play pretty differently as well. "The Coors Effect" is a real thing and in case you have no idea what I'm talking about, here's a quick explanation: Denver high. No air. Ball hit. Go far. Many runs.
Coors isn't the only ballpark that is friendly to hitters. We also have Yankee Stadium (Little league field), Fenway Park (Literally can hit a pop up for a home run), Oriole Park (Dimensions are hitter friendly), Great American Ballpark (More like Great American Small park), Wrigley Field (When the wind is blowing out. Can also be pitcher friendly when blowing in.) and more.
Of course, there's no short of pitcher friendly parks. Oakland, San Fran, San Diego, Tampa, Miami and many more.
We also talk about upgrades and downgrades when referring to ballparks. For example, when a player from the Giants, who is used to tough hitting conditions, travels to Wrigley field for a summer day game, he's going to have a nice ballpark upgrade and perhaps won't be priced appropriately. We actually see this a lot and it's something to watch out for. The same is true for pitchers who are used to pitching in those very hitter friendly ballparks and get to travel to San Fran for a much easier and more comfortable setting.
I really hope this piece helps somebody out there. It's a bit of a read but thank you for taking the time to see where my mind is at when putting together a lineup. I want to note that this is just how I go about things. I'd like to think that I have the right idea but do what works for you! I hope we all make lots of money this year!
Follow me on twitter @Rotoriley - DMs always open for questions/advice or if you just want to chat!
Also make sure to follow @sportsverseHQ on twitter if you aren't already. I post articles almost every day and there's going to be plenty of fantasy content on there.
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