2021 NFL Fantasy Sleepers and Busts

With August on the horizon, there is only one thing that we can think about. To most, that would probably be the heart of summer vacations or heading back to school, but for people like me, it means that fantasy football has begun. In this article, I will be highlighting over my five "sleepers" and "busts" for the 2021 NFL fantasy season, with two deep sleepers mentioned at the end for anyone who is in a large league or is feeling up to the risk. For the sake of this piece, a "sleeper" will refer to someone who I like more than their ADP, which means average draft position for those new to the game. Similarly, a "bust" will be a player who I am lower on than their current ADP. Just to note, my players listed as busts are still terrific fantasy options in most cases - I will just likely be avoiding them due to where they are currently being mocked or projected to go in drafts. Hopefully, the insight provided in this article will give you the edge you need to dominant your fantasy leagues this season. If you have any fantasy questions, feel free to notify me @Excyphir on Twitter, or leave a comment on this post. Enjoy!

Sleepers:

1. Myles Gaskin, MIA (RB22, ADP 55.8)

You have already seen the name of my biggest sleeper for the upcoming fantasy season, but let's give a blind resume and act like you haven't. In the weeks this player was active last season, he played 69% of the teams snaps. In those active games, he was the fantasy RB8 in PPR scoring formats, and finished seventh in receiving yards during the course of the entire season. This player has no major competition for losing shares out of the backfields this season. ESPN ranks him as fantasy RB22, and he is going in the middle of the sixth-round in most mock drafts and projections right now. If you somehow managed to miss the subtitle, that player is Miami running back Myles Gaskin. Given his high reception total, rushing capabilities, and predominant role in the Dolphins offense, I am shocked at how late Myles Gaskin is going in drafts. I value him similar to Detroit running back D'Andre Swift, who is going a full two-rounds ahead of Gaskin on average. Myles Gaskin is a high-end fantasy RB2, and as long as his stock doesn't skyrocket within the next few weeks, you should take advantage of his draft position.

2. Mecole Hardman, KC (WR54, ADP 145.0)

The second sleeper that I am all over for the 2021 fantasy season is Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman. It is no secret that the Chiefs possess the best air raid offense in the entirety of the league, which is something that fantasy players should look to take advantage of this year. With the departure of Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman is in the clear to take over as the third receiving option on the team next to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Yes, those two names will generate a large portion of the team's target share, but there is enough love to go around with the amount of points that the team will score. I like Mecole Hardman much more than his ADP of 145.0 should indicate, which makes him one of my prime sleepers for this season.

Photo Attribution: Jeffrey Beall, Mecole Hardman, CC BY 4.0

3. David Johnson, HOU (RB33, ADP 109.3)

The Houston Texans are a mess. No one really knows what is happening with Deshaun Watson, and the team has managed to rid of the majority of their elite talent in recent years. There is no player on this team that is worth spending an early selection on, but there are numerous names that are flying under the radar. After all, someone on the Texans will need to produce yards, and someone will need to score. The player that I think is in the best position to do those things is David Johnson, and he is falling all the way out of the top ten rounds right now in most drafts. With Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead all joining the running back room, there is some risk to David Johnson losing touches, but that is a risk I am more than willing to take with a late selection. David Johnson is currently positioned as ESPN's RB33 despite him only finishing outside the top 30 once last season in the 11 games he played. Astonishingly, David Johnson finished as the seventh-best fantasy back during those 11 games he played. It would be foolish to expect that much success again this season, but David Johnson is a player who should be going much earlier than he currently is.

4. Josh Jacobs, LV (RB20, ADP 39.8)

Josh Jacobs saw a big drop off in the quality of play he produced during his sophomore season as compared to his rookie campaign. There are a lot of valid reason as to why his draft position has plummeted out of the first two rounds this season, but I am still willing to hammer in Josh Jacobs in relation to his current ADP of 39.8. Despite a down year, Josh Jacobs finished as the overall fantasy RB8 last season, which is largely due to the sheer volume of carries he saw. With the addition of Kenyan Drake, many people are scared that his touches will drop significantly, but I am not nearly as worried as the majority. I think Kenyan Drake will pick up the carries that Devontae Booker saw last season, while getting the majority of the pass-catching work out of the backfield. Josh Jacobs is not a reception threat, which hurts his stock in PPR formats by quite a bit, but he was never that threat in past seasons either. He will see a lot of carries, get touches near the goal line, and score the majority of the Raiders touchdowns on the ground. Be cautious with his limited PPR upside, but if Jacobs is available in the start to middle of the fourth-round (depending on who is still there), I will lock in a safe RB2 or flex for my squad.

5. Ja'Marr Chase, CIN (WR26, ADP 65.3)

A rookie in my sleepers? It is always difficult to precisely gauge the fantasy implications that a rookie will have, but I am confident that Ja'Marr Chase will step in with a massive role immediately. If you watched any college football two seasons ago, you know that the Joe Burrow to Ja'Marr Chase connection was unstoppable, which eventually led to LSU cruising to a national championship. Now reunited with Joe Burrow, I expect a lot of the same magic that we saw to carry over. The Bengals certainly have a lot of young talent on their roster, but I expect them to be playing from behind quite a bit, especially in the loaded AFC North. Playing from behind equates to more passing downs, which means more time for Ja'Marr Chase to shine. From Justin Jefferson to DK Metcalf to A.J. Brown to Terry McLaurin, we have seen receivers come in to the league and dominate right away, and Ja'Marr Chase is more talented than all of them. His ADP is already decently high, but don't be shocked to see top 10 numbers in his rookie season.

Busts:

1. Chase Edmonds, ARI (RB23, ADP 76.6)

If there is one player that I will be steering clear from in fantasy drafts this season, it is Chase Edmonds, and I recommend that you follow suit. Currently ranked as ESPN's fantasy RB23, Chase Edmonds is just one spot below Myles Gaskin, and is positioned ahead of players such as Mike Davis and Kareem Hunt. With Kenyan Drake leaving in free agency, there is upside for Chase Edmonds to see in an increase in his workload, but James Conner should fulfill the rushing role that Drake had, leaving Edmonds with primarily third-down duties. During his career, Chase Edmonds has only played over two-thirds of the snaps in two games, so it would be optimistic to think he will do so on a weekly basis in 2021. As with most running backs with an established role, there is upside for Chase Edmonds to take over the backfield if James Conner struggles or gets hurt, but that is a big risk to take with his current ranking. I view Chase Edmonds has a flex option with RB2 upside.

Quick Note: I don't mind Chase Edmonds in the 8th round where his current ADP is, but I have consistently seen him go in the 5th-6th round, and I do not agree with his ranking compared to other backs.

2. Robert Tonyan, GB (TE10, ADP 104.5)

UPDATE: With it now looking like Aaron Rodgers will play in 2021, I wouldn't consider Tonyan a bust, but I still expect much regression this season.

If you were to ask most NFL fans who Robert Tonyan was one year ago, the majority of them would have no response. After his breakout season in 2020 where he scored 11 touchdowns and finished as the TE4 in fantasy, he has become a household name for casual fans. Unfortunately, I expect massive regression in Tonyan's production this year. The most obvious reason for that would be the current Aaron Rodgers situation, with it looking like he might not play a snap for the Green Bay Packers ever again. Even if Rodgers was to return, it is difficult to render Tonyan's production as sustainable. As ESPN stats dictate, Tonyan averaged only 3.7 targets per game, with no more than six targets in any game. Also, he maintained an 88% catch rate and 18.6% TD rate, both which would be ridiculously hard to replicate. In ten team leagues, I view Robert Tonyan as a strong backup tight end option.

Photo Attribution: All-Pro Reels, Robert Tonyan, CC BY-SA 2.0

3. Davante Adams, GB (WR2, ADP 10)

UPDATE: With it now looking like Aaron Rodgers will play in 2021, you can completely remove Adams from the bust list. He is fantasy WR1.

It was very challenging for me to fill out the last three "bust" spots on my list, so I decided to go with three players that are going early in every single fantasy draft that I am slightly lower on than the general consensus. To avoid any confusion, all three of these players are eminently valuable fantasy pieces, I just will likely be avoiding them with their current draft positions. Hear me out Packers fans... Davante Adams is one of the best receivers, if not the best receiver, in the NFL. With it being unlikely that Aaron Rodgers is his quarterback this year, I cannot see myself taking Davante Adams in the first-round of any league that I am in. Of course, Davante Adams is still an exceptional fantasy receiver that I would love to find in the middle to late of the second-round, but it would be extraordinary for him to have not been selected by that point. Every analyst has him ranked as the first or second fantasy receiver, and I cannot trust that to remain the case if Jordan Love or Blake Bortles is throwing to him instead of one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. There is really nothing else for me to say - he is my WR1 if Rodgers plays, he drops a few spots if he doesn't, which is the more plausible scenario at this point in time.

4. D'Andre Swift, DET (RB16, ADP 35.2)

I am mainly focusing in on standard leagues for this discussion of D'Andre Swift's fantasy value. With the trading of Matt Stafford and the exit of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, the Lions will more than likely struggle to a large degree this season. With the expectation that they will be playing from behind in the majority of games, I am not intrigued by Swift's presence as a rusher, especially since he wasn't able to fully take over the backfield in his rookie season. However, he should be a massive part of the Lions receiving game, and they should be passing a lot, which is crucial to success in PPR formats. I would try to avoid Swift in standard leagues, but I have no problem with him being selected in the fourth-round of PPR leagues, even if I don't think he is on the same level as players ranked near him such as Antonio Gibson or Najee Harris.

5. DK Metcalf, SEA (WR6, ADP 19.2)

Like the Davante Adams take, I figure that I will get some serious slack for this one. To be entirely honest, I can understand the hate I may get for this one, but it is my list. DK Metcalf finished as the WR7 in fantasy last season, and is currently listed as ESPN's projected WR6 for the upcoming season. DK Metcalf is a beast, that is pretty obvious. It is indubitably possible that DK Metcalf finishes near the top 6 like projected, but I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he falls out of the top 12 either. Last season, it was nearly alternating every week where DK Metcalf would put up a massive performance one week, then Tyler Locket would the next, with neither doing a whole lot on their off turn. I don't expect that to fully be the case this year, and although it is nice to have one performance propel you towards a win every so often, I would prefer to select a more consistent player. Down the final five game stretch, DK was unable to eclipse 80 yards in any of the games, and only had one touchdown within that time. Also, being the deep ball target he is, he won't get as many reception points in PPR formats as other top receiving options. DK Metcalf is an intriguing fantasy option who can give you the win on any given week, I just don't like him in the first two-rounds, which is where he is going in most drafts at this point.

Deep Sleepers:

Joshua Palmer, WR, LAC

These two deep sleepers are players that should not be selected anywhere near the front to middle rounds of the draft, but are players who I could see exceeding their expectations significantly, and are worth a flier at the end of the draft or in deeper leagues. The first of these players is Chargers rookie receiver Joshua Palmer. With the explosion of Justin Herbert, the Chargers evolved to a pass-heavy team, and I expect that to be the case again in 2021. Keenan Allen is locked in as the first receiver on the team, Mike Williams should be the second option, and Austin Ekeler will get a ton of opportunities catching out of the backfield, but the rest of the depth chart is completely open for Joshua Palmer to take. If he is able to beat out Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson, the rookie third-rounder should see an established role in the offense, especially with Mike Williams' unpredictability.

Jake Funk, RB, LAR

Concluding my deep sleepers is another rookie, which is Rams seventh-round selection Jake Funk. With the awful news that Cam Akers suffered an Achilles injury and is likely to miss all of 2021, there is a new opportunity for Jake Funk to get a role in the offense. Darrell Henderson figures to be the workhorse guy in replace of Akers, but that role is far from a lock if Henderson struggles. I am not predicting that Jake Funk will be a reliable option this season, in fact, it is more likely that he will not be, but a rookie running back in a room where there is instability at the position is always worth a flier.