2022 NFL Fantasy Sleepers and Busts

To all the readers that have disengaged with sports content since the end of the NFL season, welcome back! With August right around the corner, it is time to prepare for the upcoming fantasy football season. I do love covering the NBA and MLB seasons as well, but anyone that has followed me since the beginning knows that football is truly where my heart lies. Last year, I produced an article that highlighted both my favorite and least favorite fantasy players in regards to their draft position, and I am back to do that once again. In this article, I will be highlighting over my five "sleepers" and "busts" for the 2022 NFL fantasy season, with two deep sleepers mentioned at the end for anyone who is in a large league or is feeling up to the risk. For the sake of this piece, a "sleeper" will refer to someone who I like more than their ESPN positional ranking and overall draft positions. Similarly, a "bust" will be a player who I am lower on than their current ESPN rank or ADP. Just to note, my players listed as busts are still terrific fantasy options in most cases - I will just likely be avoiding them due to where they are currently being mocked or projected to go in drafts. Hopefully, the insight provided in this article will give you the edge you need to dominant your fantasy leagues this season. If you have any fantasy questions, feel free to notify me @cobioconnell on Twitter, or leave a comment on this post. Enjoy!

Sleepers:

1. Rashaad Penny, SEA (RB36)

Islanderzz, Penny Press, CC BY-SA 4.0

The Seattle Seahawks dynasty is officially over. After trading superstar quarterback Russell Wilson and dumping other pivotal players that are creeping past their prime in age such as Bobby Wagner, the Seahawks are committed to a full rebuild. A piece of that rebuild includes their selection of Michigan State standout running back Kenneth Walker III in the second round. This selection isn't too much of a shocker as former starter Chris Carson medically retired this offseason, but don't forget about Rashaad Penny. With the playoffs distant in the horizon, Seattle will likely operate with Penny as the lead back to keep tread of Walker's tires until they are more competitive. Rashaad Penny has been prone to injuries so far in his career, but he has played well when provided the opportunity. He was the top fantasy scorer of all running backs from Week 13 on last season including four games of 130+ rushing yards, and is currently only ranked as the RB36 on ESPN. Playing on a poor team that will likely need to throw a lot is not ideal for a back with little receiving ability, but I will happily target Rashaad Penny in all fantasy drafts provides his draft position and large projected carry share.

2. Robert Woods, TEN (WR49)

My second favorite sleeper for the upcoming fantasy football season is newly acquired Tennessee Titan receiver Robert Woods. Woods is coming off a significant knee injury which always drives some level of concern, but he has already stated that he should be ready to play in the season opener and is currently participating in training camp without a brace. With A.J. Brown no longer in town, Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks should see a massive target share, even in an offense that saw more rushing attempts than any team in 2021. From 2018-2020 (the seasons prior to injury last year), Woods finished as the 11th, 14th, and 13th highest fantasy scoring receiver in PPR formats, and he is currently ranked as ESPN's WR49. I wouldn't expect Robert Woods to fully return to his former glory, but his draft stock is far too low right now for his expected role.

3. Saquon Barkley, NYG (RB18)

Following his rookie campaign where he finished as the second highest fantasy scorer of any non-quarterback, Saquon Barkley has disappointed fantasy owners due to his laundry list of injuries. It might be difficult for some to trust him provided that medical history, but I believe this will be the year where we see the Saquon Barkley that we all expected after being drafted. The Giants camp is raving about how healthy and explosive Saquon looks in training, and the new coaching staff and improved offensive line should allow him to get many more creative touches. Players with Saquon Barkley's talent, workhorse role, and receiving ability should not last into the third round of fantasy drafts, but that is about where we are seeing him go. Provided he can stay healthy, Barkley can be a league winning fantasy RB this upcoming season.

4. J.D. McKissic, WAS (RB47)

J.D. McKissic is not a sleeper pick that will blow you away with fantasy upside, but his value is significantly better than the 47th ranked RB label that ESPN placed upon him. The reason why McKissic's upside is severely capped is because he relies on catching passes out of the backfield rather than generating many carries. Still, McKissic ranked 17th in fantasy points among running backs in 2020, and was ranked 22nd prior to injury a season ago. In each of these last two seasons, he has ranked no worse than 6th in targets, catches, and receiving yards as a running back. The sheer volume of targets is enough alone to service J.D. McKissic as a respectable flex or RB3 option, and he is being drafted like a bench stash.

5. Travis Kelce, KC (TE2)

Travis Kelce?? A sleeper?? That statement may seem ridiculous on the surface provided his positional rank and household name, but he is deserving of being drafted higher than he currently is. Many people suggest that the departure of Tyreek Hill will hurt his fantasy appeal as defenses will be able to game plan to limit him, but I think the open target share will actually increase his fantasy production, or at least keep it the same. On a contradicting note, people have ranked Mark Andrews as the TE1 coming into the season because of the open targets on the Ravens with Hollywood Brown leaving, which is the same argument used to diminish Kelce. If healthy, Travis Kelce will finish as the TE1 once again, and is more closely deserving of his late first to early second ADP that he saw in drafts a year ago.

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Busts:

1. Gabriel Davis, BUF (WR22)

All-Pro Reels, Gabriel Davis 7 (cropped), CC BY-SA 2.0

My biggest bust candidate for the 2022-2023 NFL fantasy season has already been made apparent to you from the list and image, but let's act like you haven't seen it and provide a blind resume. A season ago, this player finished with just 63 targets for 549 yards and 6 touchdowns while also playing behind one of the best receivers in the league who sees a massive target share. What if I also told you that this player is currently the WR22 on ESPN's draft board? Of course, you already know this player to be Gabriel Davis of the Buffalo Bills, but it is important to separate the stats from the name. Look, I understand why there is a lot of hype for Gabriel Davis coming into this season. He should operate as the second target for Josh Allen with the departure of Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley, but it is also worth noting that the Bills added Jamison Crowder and drafted Khalik Shakir this offseason. There is a legitimate chance for Gabriel Davis to unleash his full potential and reach his current value based on draft position, but that is more of a ceiling rather than a median for him. I simply cannot draft Gabriel Davis before or within the likes of players such as D.K. Metcalf, Brandin Cooks, Chris Godwin, and Amari Cooper.

2. J.K. Dobbins, BAL (RB16)

As an Ohio State fan who loves the running style of J.K. Dobbins, it is challenging to place him on my bust list, but I need to be unbiased. Dobbins missed the entire 2021 season with a torn ACL, and has still been limited throughout the start of training camp. This situation screams Cam Akers from a season ago, which is not something that I am intrigued in buying into at his current ESPN ranking of RB16. That placement is above both David Montgomery and Saquon Barkley, two players who I would much rather draft. Even if J.K. Dobbins is entirely healthy entering the season, he still has to deal with losing some touches to Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards, which might be enough alone to draft some of the players listed underneath him. J.K. Dobbins is an uber talented back that I do expect to recover, but I would try to stay away this season.

3. Tee Higgins, CIN (WR10)

Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins are all excellent players who have significant fantasy value, but Super Bowl fever might be running through the air with their current ESPN rankings. All three players are listed within the top ten of their positions, and although it is possible for the trio to finish there, I find it unlikely that three players on the same offense are able to do so. If I had to choose the player that I think is most likely to drop out, it would be Tee Higgins. Higgins had an excellent 2021 highlighted by 74 catches and 1091 yards, but even that was only good enough to land him as the WR24 in PPR formats. Some positive touchdown regression can be expected as he only totaled 6 a season ago, but expecting a boost that is big enough to jump him from WR24 into the top 10 is foolish. I do like Tee Higgins as a player, but his ESPN ranking is far too high for playing second fiddle behind Ja'Marr Chase.

4. Tyreek Hill, MIA (WR8)

Reports from training camp have gushed about how strong the connection between Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill has looked, but I am not buying into the hype. I am not a believer in Tua's ability to lead an offense, and am struggling to have faith in a predominantly deep ball threat receiver pairing with his noodle arm. Jaylen Waddle will command a massive target share too, which is enough to dissuade me from liking Tyreek Hill as a top ten fantasy receiver. Tyreek Hill's talent is undeniable, but expect a handsome dip in production when moving from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. I will likely be staying away from Tyreek Hill in my fantasy drafts this season.

5. Leonard Fournette, TB (RB8)

Leonard Fournette has been a popular bust candidate among fantasy reports this offseason, and I agree, but for differing reasons. The main factor that contributed to these concerns was Fournette's weight coming into training camp, but he looks to be at a healthy weight now. My issues with Fournette in relation to his current ESPN ranking of RB8 pertain to expected negative touchdown regression, and the possibility of losing a pass-catching role. Although he was used in a workhorse role the majority of last season, Giovani Bernard and rookie Rachaad White are considerably better receivers, so the Buccaneers would be foolish to not engage them in the offense. Leonard Fournette has the upside to finish as a top five fantasy running back, but his floor is much lower than some players listed under him such as D'Andre Swift and Nick Chubb, so draft cautiously.

Deep Sleepers:

Tyler Allgeier, ATL

In this section, I will be touching upon two players that are going undrafted or very late in drafts, while possessing upside that may be able to help win leagues. These players are especially prominent in large or deeper leagues, but are worth stashing in standard leagues as well. The first of these players is Falcons' rookie running back Tyler Allgeier. With former receiver Cordarrelle Patterson and Damian Williams as the other running backs on the roster, Allgeier has a legitimate chance to end the season with the most carries. In his final season at BYU, Allgeier had a workhorse role which resulted in 1606 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. He is a true bruising back that lacks speed, but boasts immense power that can be taken advantage of in the red zone. Cordarrelle Patterson is the expected starter to open the season, but don't sleep on Tyler Allgeier taking over eventually.

Laviska Shenault Jr., JAX

Laviska Shenault Jr. is a true deep sleeper coming into the 2022 NFL season. I would steer clear of drafting him in leagues with normal roster sizes, but he is well worth a shot in other leagues where more players are needed. ESPN currently has Shenault Jr. listed outside of their top 100 fantasy receivers, which is ludicrous, especially when looking at some of the players listed above him. The former second round pick has not reached his expected potential just yet, but he will have a considerable role in the Jacksonville offense. It is expected that Shenault Jr. will operate as the third receiver to start the season behind Christian Kirk and Marvin Jones Jr., but neither of those players are elite options, so he has a chance, albeit a small one, to move up the charts.