NFL Week 1 DFS Picks For Fanduel

We are finally back! The wait couldn't have seemed longer, but the first Sunday of NFL action is upon us. Last season, we saw a ton of DFS success, and I plan on that success being replicated in 2021. Unlike the NBA or MLB, every single NFL main slate is packed with plenty of elite options to construct lineups around. Let's skip the wait and dive right in to my breakdown of the first NFL main slate on Fanduel!

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Top Play:

Travis Kelce (TE) - $8500:

It is not very often that you will see a tight end listed as my top play of the slate, but then again, Travis Kelce doesn't produce like a tight end. If you were to insert Travis Kelce into the receiver pool for this slate, he would have averaged the third most fantasy points last season, only trailing Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. However, you have to factor in the positional leverage you get of Travis Kelce being a tight end. It is much more likely that Travis Kelce finishes as the TE1 in fantasy this week than it is Davante Adams finishes as WR1, with it also being more likely that a cheaper receiver has a big game in comparison to a cheaper tight end. On this slate, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs will face off against the Browns in what should be a high-scoring affair, as indicated by their implied total of 52.5. It is also worth noting that in 2020, the Browns allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Having secured 10+ targets in ten of his last eleven games in 2020, there is no safer option than Travis Kelce.

Best Value:

James Robinson (RB) - $5900:

Fanduel created their prices for Week 1 DFS action awhile before the season started, which means that James Robinson is priced inaccurately after the Travis Etienne injury. James Robinson projects to be the highest owned player on the slate, and that shouldn't be much of a surprise. He will be the work horse back against what looks to be the worst team in the league this year in the Houston Texans. Last season, the Texans allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and they didn't get any better on that side of the ball in the offseason. With a price tag of $5900, receiving upside, and a positive game script, I can't see any reason not to roster James Robinson in Week 1, unless you want to take a huge leverage risk.

Fade:

Jonathan Taylor (RB) - $7900:

I often struggle to find a "fade" that I like for the higher projected ownership players, and the start of the new season did me no favors. I reiterated this a bunch last season, but it needs to be said again - my definition of a fade doesn't mean that I would never roster the player, but that I would be underweight on them as compared to the field if I played multiple lineups. Priced within the same tier as players like Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, and Aaron Jones, I just can't find myself rostering Jonathan Taylor when he projects to be the eight highest owned back. I think that number should come down prior to the start of the slate, but he sits in this spot nonetheless. Playing the Seahawks, I expect the Colts to be forced to throw a decent amount in this game to match their scoring. With Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines still in the backfield, I don't think that Jonathan Taylor will secure enough touches to keep up with the players I mentioned above who are priced similarly. If you think the Colts win this game, you can squeeze Taylor into some lines, I just prefer to look elsewhere.

Main Player Pool: Quarterback:

Patrick Mahomes - $8800

Kyler Murray - $8400

Josh Allen - $8100

Other great plays: Russell Wilson - $7800, Ryan Tannehill - $7700, Jalen Hurts - $7600, Baker Mayfield - $7100, Sam Darnold - $6500

Running Back:

Dalvin Cook - $9400

Alvin Kamara - $8600

James Robinson - $5900

Other great plays: Christian McCaffrey - $10400, Derrick Henry - $8900, Aaron Jones - $7400, Joe Mixon - $7200, Austin Ekeler - $6900, Najee Harris - $6500, Raheem Mostert - $6100

Wide Receiver:

Tyreek Hill - $8500

Laviska Shenault - $5600

Marquez Callaway - $5200 Other great plays: Davante Adams - $8600, DeAndre Hopkins - $8200, Calvin Ridley - $8100, Stefon Diggs - $7900, Terry McLaurin - $6900, Tee Higgins - $6000, Jerry Jeudy - $5500, Mecole Hardman - $5400, DeVonta Smith - $5300, Michael Pittman Jr. - $5300, Elijah Moore - $5000

Tight End:

Travis Kelce - $8500

George Kittle - $7000

T.J. Hockenson - $5700

Other great plays: Kyle Pitts - $6000, Logan Thomas - $5600, Robert Tonyan - $5400

D/ST:

Denver Broncos - $4100

Jacksonville Jaguars - $3900

Buffalo Bills - $3600

Other great plays: New York Giants - $3700

Cover Picture Attribution: Jeffrey Beall, Travis Kelce, CC BY 3.0