Devan's Top FD Pitchers 8/10

Last night's 3 game slate saw my 3rd and 2nd favorite pitcher plays, Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon, both have exceptional pitching performances. Unfortunately, Peralta didn't get to play due to the Cubs vs Brewers game being postponed due to rain. While it's always refreshing to have a straightforward smaller slate, I must admit that the giant nerd inside of me loves to strategize for these larger slates. With that being said, I'm excited to be coming back at you guys with my Top 5 FanDuel Pitchers on this large 13 game slate!

#5 Sean Manaea $10000 - Manaea has been a reliable pitching option on most slates he starts this year. With a solid 3.26 ERA & 26.9% K rate, this lefty has been a problem for even some of the best hitters. But on this slate, I just like the guys that are similarly priced. In his last outing against Cleveland, Manaea pitched 5.1 innings with 7 Ks while giving up 3 ER. Here's the thing with Manaea: for him to be the optimal pitcher, he needs to have a lights out performance. While Manaea's strikeout upside usually makes it easy to look past some of his rocky performances, it's hard to ignore that the A's don't like letting Manaea battle. The A's have a pattern of pulling Manaea if he gives up his 3rd run of a game before getting a quality start. Nevertheless, Manaea is a guy that will always have 50+ FD point upside every time he steps on the mound.

#4 Aaron Nola $9900 - Aaron Nola carries a big risk factor tonight. Since June 21st, the Phillies ace has a 5.05 ERA & 33% K rate. Typically, there's a red flag for me when your ERA is elevated and K rate is well above average. This tells me that he's putting the ball over the plate and letting these hitters beat themselves. I can't see an experienced pitcher like Nola continuing to do this, especially against the Dodgers. The Phillies are in a spot where they can put a gap between them, the Mets, and the Braves in the NL East standings. They are going to need their ace to start pitching like an ace. I expect Nola's ownership to be lower than Manaea at a $100 price difference. My projections have Manaea & Nola separated by 0.3 FD points. So since I have them so close to one another, I'm going to favor the one with less ownership to get an edge on the field, who I assume at this time to be Aaron Nola.

#3 Alex Wood $8600 - It's August 10th, and the San Francisco Giants have the best record in baseball. What alternate dimension did we stumble upon? This band of misfits that were supposed to be in a rebuild year are finding ways to win. With a slim lead in the division with the stacked Dodgers on their tail, the Giants need to win both games in this 2 game series against the D-backs. My projection model has Alex Wood in a great spot to have a big game. Alex Wood has a decent 4.03 ERA & 25% K rate this year. While Manaea & Nola are better pitchers than Wood (in my opinion), my projection model has Wood grading out better than both of them due to Wood's cheaper $8600 price tag. At just $8600 against the 8th worst FD point producing team while striking out 1/4 of the batters he faces, Wood is a great mid priced pitcher to consider for tonight.

#2 Logan Gilbert $8900 - While Alex Wood is a great mid priced option, he isn't my favorite. That prestigious award goes to Logan Gilbert. The Seattle righty has a 4.14 ERA & a 28.2% K Rate on the season, but he's pitching against the Rangers, the worst FanDuel point producing team this season. Gilbert jumps ahead of Manaea and Nola for me today for the same reason as Wood: the savings in salary. Both are great plays with extraordinary upsides, but my projection model has Gilbert projected for 3 more FD points than Wood. I also believe going against the Rangers in Seattle is a more safe set of circumstances than against Arizona in San Francisco.

#1 Max Scherzer $10600 - The Dodgers are traveling to Philly with a man who's familiar with shutting down the Phillies in their own ballpark. Before being traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline, Scherzer pitched three games for the Nationals against the Phillies in Philly. He combined for 18.2 IP, 3 ER, and 22 Ks. He's even averaging 46.33 FD points in those games. Scherzer has also looked sensational in his first couple of starts as a Dodger. For the season, Scherzer has a 2.75 ERA & a 34.5% K rate. The dude is just an exceptional pitcher. The only caveat to playing Scherzer is he's the most expensive pitcher on the slate. But according to my projection model, Scherzer is still the best value play at pitcher today even with him being $10600. If Scherzer gets his usual 6-7 innings on the bump, there's a high probability that he'll be the optimal pitcher.

Sleeper Pick

Braxton Garrett $5700 - Braxton Garrett is slated to start for the Marlins against the Padres tonight. In his last start two starts, Garrett went 7 innings with 2 ER and 10 Ks and 5 innings with 0 ER and 6 Ks. These are not performances that you'd expect from a player priced at $5700. To make things even more interesting, the 7 inning outing was against the Padres. For $5700, I'm willing to take that shot on a guy like Braxton Garrett.

Thank you guys for reading, and I hope you all enjoyed this pitcher breakdown. If you want to see the lineup I'll be playing tonight, check my twitter (@DevanRJJ) around 6:30-6:45pm est. Also, feel free to tweet me your lineups, your thoughts on the slate, or if you have any questions. Good luck!