MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 7/6/22

I am a simple man - we have baseball today, so today is good. Tonight's stretch of action covers 8 games with little worry of weather. Despite the average size of the main slate, there are numerous quality pitcher and stacking options to consider. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

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Weather:

TEX @ BAL - The forecast shows that there is a high chance of rain coming in during the mid to late innings of this game. There is a chance of a mid-game delay or that they call it, but the most likely outcome is a complete game. Label this spot as a moderate risk.

NYY @ PIT, STL @ ATL - There is a chance for a rain delay in both these games but that isn't too likely. Only put small risk labels here.

Top Pitchers:

1) Aaron Nola ($10500) -

All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA, Phillies SP Aaron Nola August 26, 2020 (50274605487) (cropped), CC BY-SA 2.0

It is easy to put Nola, Severino, and Javier in the top three pitcher spots tonight, but it is a little more difficult to rank them. All three are having excellent seasons and are on the mound against below-average hitting teams, so it is tough to go wrong with whoever you prefer. Despite the barrage of strong arms, Aaron Nola is my top choice for both cash games and tournaments tonight. The Nationals are not an imposing offense as indicated by a 97 wRC+ and .134 ISO, and they may be without Soto and Cruz tonight, which would make their lineup a cake walk. Nola has been stellar in his 2022 campaign posing a 2.80 SIERA, 2.94 FIP, and 29.10% strikeout rate. I expect Nola to continue to dominate tonight.

2) Luis Severino ($9500) -

In his first full year back from injury, Luis Severino has shown that he hasn't lost a step. He boasts a 3.24 SIERA, 3.35 ERA, and a 28.90% strikeout rate, and has gone 6+ innings in seven of his last eight starts. Those numbers make Severino a prime option against any team, but he has a favorable matchup against the Pirates tonight. The Pirates have scored runs much more efficiently in recent games with the addition of Oneil Cruz, but they still are not a fearful opponent. Across this season, they strikeout at a high 25.10% clip while scoring runs well below the league average with an 87 wRC+. Luis Severino is a top contender to finish as the SP1 on this slate.

3) Christian Javier ($9700) -

Saying Christian Javier has been dominant recently would be an understatement of drastic proportions. In his last two starts, Javier has scored an unworldly 140 FD points from 27 strikeouts across 14 innings. That level of success is impossible for Javier to carry with, but there is no doubting his current upside. He currently resides with a 2.58 ERA, 2.57 FIP, and an incredible 34.30% strikeout rate. The Royals don't strike out much (21.30% rate vs. righties), but they aren't a difficult opponent either as they total a 91 wRC+. All of those factors point towards Christian Javier being an elite arm tonight, which he is, but not without any drawbacks. Prior to his last two starts, Javier struggled to go deep into games as he went 6 innings just twice in 13 appearances. Nonetheless, Javier is a considerable option in all formats.

Value Pitcher:

Brayan Bello ($6000) -

With no strong options in the $7000-$9000 range tonight, I was forced to look towards major risk for my value pitcher. I certainly won't be getting to Brayan Bello in my main lineup, but with a salary of $6000, he allows you to stack up all the prime batters you want. Bello is making his MLB debut for the Red Sox tonight following an impressive season in AA/AAA where he carried a 2.33 ERA and struck out 114 batters in 85 innings. Strikeout totals usually dip when entering the majors, but he has shown that he can generate some whiffs, which has its value. A lot is unknown with Brayan Bello, but uncertainty can create chaos, and not necessarily bad chaos.

Other pitching options: Max Fried ($10400)

Top Stacks:

1) Dodgers -

The Dodgers carry a lofty 5.95 team total tonight, which is nearly a full run higher than the Braves, who have the second highest total. After being dropped by the Brewers, José Ureña will make his first start for the Rockies after being claimed. This promotion is somewhat of a surprise as he had a 7.29 ERA with the Rockies minor league affiliate, so one of the best hitting teams in the league should be able to take advantage. With the Brewers in a small sample, José Ureña had a 3.52 ERA, but his SIERA was 6.29, which shows that luck was involved. I am most interested in loading up on lefties which makes Freeman, Muncy, and Bellinger my most appealing targets, but Betts, Trea, and Smith are excellent options as well.

2) Phillies -

With the youngster Josiah Gray on the mound against them, the Phillies are my second favorite stack of the slate. Josiah Gray is a terrific prospect who excels at generating whiffs, but he has yet to be able to limit power. His 4.22 ERA is not awful, but most of those runs come from homers, which is a DFS appeal. On the season, Gray is allowing 1.78 HR/9 across a 37.60% hard hit rate, 27.40% ground ball rate, and 48.80% fly ball rate. Allowing that much air under the ball can be a problem of concern in one of the most home run friendly parks in the league. Schwarber, Hall, Castellanos, Hoskins, Realmuto, and Herrera are the best Phillies to target in this matchup.

3) Astros -

The Astros round out my top stacks of the day with a matchup against Brad Keller and the abysmal Royals bullpen. Brad Keller is a groundball pitcher (49.80%) who has a decent 4.24 ERA on the season, but lefties have been able to generate power against him, and the Astros have some terrific lefty hitters. Also, Keller is allowing a ton of balls in play as his strikeout rate sits at just 15.60%., which means more opportunities for hits and homers. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the top priorities, with Altuve, Bregman, Peña, Meyers, and McCormick being other appealing bats.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Yankees, Orioles, Rangers