MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 7/1/22
- Cobi O'Connell
- Jul 1, 2022
- 5 min read
July has arrived! The weekend of the fourth is right around the corner, but prior to that, we have some baseball action to cover. I started off June sizzling on DFS, but the rest of the month was a major disappointment. That isn't to say that my analysis in the articles was off, I just happened to choose a lot of the wrong players in the stacks I backed - an unlucky baseball DFS circumstance. For tonight's stretch of 10 games, we have plenty of intriguing pitching and stacking options. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!
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Weather:
KCR @ DET, NYY @ CLE - There will be storms and/or heavy rain in both of these areas around the scheduled game time. Delay or postponement is very possible in both spots, so label it as moderate to high risk. Check the forecast closer to lock.
MIL @ PIT, ARI @ COL - There is a possibility of rain in both of these spots, but the coverage looks light and short-lived. Delays are possible, but not likely, so put only a minor risk on these games.
TEX @ NYM, BAL @ MIN - Hot with light winds blowing out in both New York and Minneapolis - excellent weather for batters.
Top Pitchers:
1) Corbin Burnes ($10900) -
One of the best pitchers against one of the worst offenses in baseball? Sign me up! Of course, most people are going to recognize this which will elevate Burnes' ownership, but his high floor and limitless upside make him a cash game lock and strong GPP option still. Burnes has followed his 2021 Cy Young season with a 2.41 ERA, 32.40% strikeout rate, and is holding opponents to just a .191 average. Although they have scored some runs in recent games, it will be hard for a Pirates team that strikes out at a 25.00% rate and has an 88 wRC+ against righties to pick up on such a dominant pitcher. Lock in Corbin Burnes as the SP1.
2) Gerrit Cole ($10600) -
If you want to go the route of getting a pitcher whose upside is just as high as Burnes' without the massive ownership, then look no further than Gerrit Cole. While Cole has pitched nearly as well as Burnes (2.99 ERA, 31.80% strikeout rate, .200 opponent average), he draws a significantly tougher opposing team tonight. The Guardians are an extremely low strikeout team against righties with just a 17.40% K rate, while still generating runs with a 106 wRC+. Also, there is a moderately high risk of delay or postponement in this game, so be sure to check the forecast if wanting to play Cole. Weather permitting, Cole is an excellent pivot off of Burnes.
3) Chris Bassitt ($9800) -
(Update: Bassitt scratched)
It might be boring going with the three highest priced pitchers as my top three pitching options on the slate, but boring can win money. Chris Bassitt was in somewhat of a pitching slump a few weeks ago, but he has bounced back strongly in his recent three starts with FD scorings of 55, 41, and 37. Bassitt's season ERA of 4.01 isn't bulletproof, but he has shown on numerous occasions that he can dominate with a plus matchup, and he has one tonight. The Rangers carry just a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, while striking out at a friendly 23.30% clip. I don't expect Bassitt's ownership to be high tonight, so he is an excellent single entry tournament pitcher.
Value Pitcher:
Joe Ryan ($9000) -
I like to signal my value pitcher as a player who carries a $9000 or less salary, so Joe Ryan just fits into that boundary tonight. Although his performances have been sporadic since returning from injury, Ryan is now fully back in the loop as he has gone over 100 pitches in both of his recent starts. That hasn't necessarily resulted in great performances as he totaled just 15 FD points in his most recent start, but Ryan has been a hit-or-miss DFS streamer all season long. He has pitched four games of 40+ FD points, but also has five starts of less than 20 FD points. Facing off against an Orioles roster that strikes out at a 23.50% rate and has a 93 wRC+ against righties, Joe Ryan has the opportunity to have one of his ceiling games tonight.
Other pitching options: Tony Gonsolin ($9400), Christian Javier ($9100), Lance Lynn ($7800)
Top Stacks:
1) Diamondbacks -
The Diamondbacks will be facing off against Antonio Senzatela at Coors Field which makes them more than deserving of the top stack spot tonight. Vegas has given the Rockies (6.15) a higher implied total than the Diamondbacks (5.85), but provided the pitchers and hitters salary, I would rather lie on the Arizona side. Senzatela is a ground ball pitcher (44.00% GB rate) which is usually a cause for concern in DFS, but he still allows a 41.00% hard hit rate and allows an incredibly high .356 opponent average. Also, Senzatela puts a lot of balls in play as shown by just a 12.50% strikeout rate and 5.30% walk rate, which provides more opportunities for long balls in the Denver elevation. Walker, Varsho, Peralta, Thomas, Marte, and Rojas are all good hitters to target in this scenario.
2) Twins -
If we didn't have a Coors Field game on our hands tonight, then the Twins would be an easy candidate to take up the top stacking spot against Spencer Watkins. Watkins' statistics show that he is a prime target to stack against in nearly every regard, making the Twins hitters very appealing. He brings a 5.14 ERA, .289 opponent average, allows a lot of balls in play with just a 11.20% strikeout rate, and can get elevated relatively easily with a 40.30% hard hit rate and 39.50% fly ball rate. It is hot with winds blowing out in Minneapolis, making the Twins even more of a highly regarded stack. My primary targets on the Twins are Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Kepler, Arraez, and Sanchez.
3) Rockies -
The last stack I will touch upon in this article is the team that has the highest implied run total on the slate, the Rockies. That isn't too much of a surprise as they know how to take advantage of their home Coors environment more than any other team, but I would prefer to stack against Senzatela than Merrill Kelly. Merrill Kelly is far from a perfect pitcher, but he has played well this season with a 3.64 ERA and 20.20% strikeout rate. Also, he does an excellent job of limiting power as he only allows .54 HR/9 on a 34.90% hard hit rate and 44.00% ground ball rate. Even so, there is no denying the benefited ball park factor that Coors Field gives to the hitters. Cron, Blackmon, Bryant, Joe, and McMahon are the players I am most comfortable with fielding in my lineups.
Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Mariners
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