MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 7/7/22

The MLB main slate on FanDuel tonight features 9 total games with only minor weather concerns at the current time. With studs like Musgrove, Cole, and Cease on the mound, and prominent stacks like the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers available, there are numerous different approaches you could take with lineup construction. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

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Weather:

LAA @ BAL, STL @ ATL, DET @ CHW - The forecasts around these venues shows that rain/storms are possible at first pitch or sometime during the duration of the game, but the risk doesn't look too severe right now. I'd label a light to moderate risk, but be sure to check the weather closer to lock.

NYY @ BOS - Winds blowing towards left field (Green Monster) at about 10 MPH - bump the bats.

STL @ ATL, CHC @ LAD - Light winds blowing out - small boost to hitters.

Top Pitchers:

1) Dylan Cease ($10400) -

Similar to last night's slate, the top three fantasy pitchers for tonight are quite apparent, and those pitchers happen to be the three with the highest salaries. Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, and Joe Musgrove have all had fantastic seasons and are well-deserving of DFS consideration tonight, but Dylan Cease stands out as the top ace because of his easier matchup. Although the TIgers have scored much more with the addition of Riley Greene and with Javier Baez getting hot, they are still not a lineup that most pitchers will fear. On the season, they have a miserable 72 wRC+ against righties, while striking out at a high 24.00% clip. Being one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball with a 34.30% K rate, Cease should be able to rack them up tonight. Vegas has his over/under for strikeouts at 8.5, which shows just how much confidence they have in him against this team.

2) Gerrit Cole ($10900) -

Gerrit Cole is usually a slightly better DFS option than Cease because he is simply a better pitcher who doesn't get caught in jams as frequently, but his matchup is significantly more difficult. Everyone knows that Gerrit Cole has not performed the best against the Red Sox at Fenway, but his sheer upside is too good to keep him from being a top play. He is maintaining a 2.99 ERA, 31.50% strikeout rate, and is holding opponent hitters to just a .197 average. Even though the Red Sox hit righties relatively well with a 101 wRC+ and .723 OPS, there is always a chance for Cole to mow through any lineup. Having scored 50+ FD points the same amount of times that he has scored 30 or fewer, Gerrit Cole is a top pitching option on any slate.

3) Joe Musgrove ($11100) -

Although Joe Musgrove has pitched as well as any pitcher in the league this year, his DFS stock takes a slight hit because he doesn't possess the same strikeout ability as some of the other top arms. That hasn't mattered too much as he has made up for it by going deep into games (6+ innings in every start this season), but it is still worth noting. Nonetheless, his 25.60% strikeout rate is still above average, and he does an excellent job of mitigating runs as indicated by a 2.25 ERA. On paper, Musgrove has the most difficult matchup of the top aces with the Giants boasting a 104 wRC+ and .714 OPS against righties, but I don't think they are any better of an offense than the Red Sox. Even with Musgrove being my third best arm tonight, there is a viable case for rostering him in any format.

Value Pitcher:

Spencer Strider ($8600) -

There is only one pitcher priced under $9000 that I have any interest in putting in lineups tonight, and that pitcher is Spencer Strider. Strider has been phenomenal in his rookie season so I am not entirely sure why his salary is this low, but it creates for an easy decision if you are looking to load up on bats. In his five recent starts of being stretched out, Strider has 31 strikeouts with only 9 runs allowed, and 6 of those came in one game. Across the span of the entire season, he has a stellar 2.87 ERA, 2.00 FIP, and an absurd 37.70% strikeout rate. However, Strider has a vastly difficult matchup against a Cardinals roster that totals a 105 wRC+ and .715 OPS against righties. There is also the possibility of a mid-inning pop up storm causing a delay, which puts some risk on playing him.

Other pitching options: Tony Gonsolin ($10000), Logan Webb ($9700)

Top Stacks:

1) Braves -

All-Pro Reels, Austin Riley (50331512017), CC BY-SA 2.0

The Braves are currently sitting with a hefty 5.62 implied run total, the highest on the slate by over half a run. I am on the side of Vegas today as the Braves are my top stack. There is a chance that pop-up storms appear over the ballpark at some point during the game which could cause a delay, but it is very unlikely that the game is unable to finish, so the bats are safe. 22 year old Matthew Liberatore is pitching for the Cardinals tonight, and although he is a promising prospect, he is someone that we can stack against for now. Liberatore is surrendering a lot of power as he is allowing 1.74 HR/9 across a 53.60% hard hit rate and 47.10% fly ball rate, and winds blowing out will not help him tonight. His 5.66 ERA and .299 opponent average are other areas to target, so the Braves should put up runs. Riley, Acuna Jr., Swanson, Contreras, Duvall, and Olson are the best batters to target.

2) White Sox -

Although there are plenty of pitchers that are capable of being stacked against on this slate, most of them are ground ball pitchers, which lowers DFS appeal as homeruns are the primary source of points. One pitcher that does not generate many groundballs who also is capable of being hit around is Beau Brieske. Brieske was on a good stretch a few weeks ago, but he has come back to Earth in his last three starts with 12 runs allowed across 14.2 innings. His season-long ERA of 4.54 isn't too bad, but he allows balls in play (15.70% strikeout rate), and a lot of power (41.50% hard hit rate, 43.90% fly ball rate). The return of Eloy Jimenez provides another reason to load up on the White Sox tonight. The top hitters to consider here are Abreu, Vaughn, Robert, Anderson, Sheets, and Jimenez.

3) Dodgers -

The Dodgers let down DFS owners (including me) in last night's game where they only scored two runs against the Rockies. Although that performance left a bad taste in the mouth of many, they are a quality stack to consider again tonight. Mark Leiter Jr. is on the mound for the Cubs, and it is not likely that he stays in the game for long. He has pitched over 4 innings just once this season, which is significant since the Cubs bullpen has the sixth worst ERA in the league. Leiter Jr. does limit hard contact as represented by a 51.30% ground ball rate leading to just .91 HR/9 allowed. Still, his 4.85 ERA is far from ideal, and pitchers who aren't used to being stretched out can struggle when forced to. Betts, Freeman, T. Turner, Smith, Muncy, Bellinger, and Lamb are solid batting options at their respective salaries.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Yankees, Rockies, Blue Jays, Orioles