MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 7/5/22

I hope that everyone had a terrific holiday weekend! I certainly enjoyed my time in the past few days, especially with betting going relatively well for me. The first article back from the short break covers a particularly interesting slate as there are no top tier aces on the slate, but there are a a handful of enticing stacks, with many different weather scenarios that will affect the games. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

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Weather:

MIN @ CHW - There are some strong storms in the area at the start of the game time and they don't look like they will die quickly. High risk of delay and play or straight up postponement here.

WAS @ PHI, TEX @ BAL, CLE @ DET - All of these games look similar at their current forecasts. There is a possibility of rain or storms in each of these spots, but they don't look overly problematic. Also, if there are no problems, winds are blowing out at 10-15 MPH in these games which gives a boost to hitters. Only small risk spots as of now, but check the weather closer to lock.

NYY @ PIT, TBR @ BOS, STL @ ATL - These games all have a similar forecast to that of the games mentioned above, but without the benefited wind boost. Small risk of delay or postponement due to rain/storms, but as always, check the weather at lock.

Top Pitchers:

1) Luis Garcia ($10000) -

There is a lack of dominant pitchers on this slate, which will require us to pay up for some pitchers that would usually be considered secondary options. One such pitcher, and my top option on the slate, is Luis Garcia of the Astros. $10000 would usually be a price that would drive me away from Garcia, but we are forced to absorb those salaries tonight. Garcia has pitched strongly in 2022 with a 3.54 ERA, 25.70% strikeout rate, and is holding opponents to a .208 average. Pair that up with his matchup against a Royals team that totals a below-average 90 wRC+ and .127 ISO against righties, and you have a relatively safe matchup. The one caveat to this situation is that the Royals only strikeout at a 21.20% rate against righties, but I am more inclined to steer towards reliability than sheer upside on a slate like tonight's.

2) Jameson Taillon ($9400) -

In a revenge game of sorts, Jameson Taillon is my second favorite pitcher to target on Tuesday. Although the Pirates have benefited from the call up of Oneil Cruz, they are still far from a fearful team as they carry just a 86 wRC+ against righties with a substantial 25.10% strikeout rate. Taillon is not much of a strikeout pitcher himself (19.80% rate), but his upside this year has came when he has been able to go deep into games, and he is in a prime spot to do that tonight. Numbers such as a 3.32 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and 3.20% walk rate should overpower a weak Pirates lineup.

3) Nick Pivetta ($10100) -

My final pitching spot is occupied by the pitcher who has pitched the best of any ace on this slate in recent games, Nick Pivetta. Boasting a 23.60% strikeout rate against a Rays team that strikes out a 25.10% clip against righties makes Pivetta the player with the most upside tonight, although it isn't without its downfalls. The Rays do strikeout a lot, but they are a much better hitting team than the two teams the players mentioned above play, especially with the return of Wander Franco. Pivetta has been susceptible to giving up hard contact which is another possible route to failure, although his other peripherals have been stellar. I would consider Pivetta a quality tournament option on tonight's stretch of games.

Value Pitcher:

Cal Quantrill ($8200) -

Cal Quantrill is not a DFS pitcher that I am not usually interested in targeting for a variety of reasons, but on slates like such, a cheap and consistent but upside-capped player isn't the worst of ideas. Quantrill is heavily weighed down by his inability to generate whiffs as his 14.60% strikeout rate is very poor, but he is consistent at limiting runs. On the season, he carries a 3.72 ERA and is averaging just south of 26 FD points per game. Tonight, he gets an appetizing matchup against a Tigers squad that has an abysmal 70 wRC+ and 24.10% strikeout rate against righties. I won't get to Quantrill, but he is an okay option.

Other pitching options: Jeffrey Springs ($8400), Alex Wood ($8000)

Top Stacks:

1) Phillies -

There are 9 stacks today that I would be very comfortable in rostering. That number is considerably higher than on most slates, which makes ranking my top stacks very difficult. Team implied run totals have shifted all day as starters have been announced and weather has updated, but the Phillies total of 5.21 is the highest at this moment. The main reason for that is because winds are blowing out at 10-15 MPH in one of the most receptive parks to wind in baseball, Citizens Bank Park. Paolo Espino has been stretched out to multiple inning starts in recent games, and although his 2.80 ERA is strong, I don't expect it to hold. Also, he allows a 38.00% hard hit rate and 43.80% fly ball rate, which could lead to problems with the current conditions. If he does get blown up early, the Nationals bullpen has the sixth worst ERA in the league - another advantage to prioritize. Schwarber, Hoskins, Castellanos, Hall, and Realmuto are the top hitters to target.

2) Orioles -

Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA, Austin Hays (36924756552), CC BY-SA 2.0

On a slate filled with top hitting teams in good scenarios, the Orioles should go severely overlooked. The Orioles aren't a team that imposes much fear into opposing pitchers, but they have power in the top half of the lineup, and are in a prime spot tonight. Spencer Howard has pitched decently well in AAA this season, but in his three stints in the majors, he has been obliterated. His ERA sits at a whopping 12.15, and he has surrendered and unworldly 8.10 HR/9 across a 72.20% hard hit rate. Of course, these totals are elevated by a miniscule sample size, but they still manage to show his concerns. Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, Mullins, and Mancini are all candidates to go yard.

Update: Austin Hays is out tonight.

3) Dodgers -

Facing off against a struggling Germán Márquez, the Dodgers are in a great spot to put up some runs. Márquez pitched against the Dodgers in his most recent start, and that resulted in 5 earned across just 3.1 innings. Those struggles have been consistent over the course of the entire season as his peripherals show a 5.89 ERA, .284 opponent average, and 44.60% hard hit rate. The return of Mookie Betts provides a major boost to the team stack as well, adding to the appeal. I don't love to target Lux because of his lack of power, but the rest of the lineup is playable, with Betts, Freeman, Trea, and Smith being at the top.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Astros, Giants, Guardians, Yankees, Braves, Blue Jays