MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 5/24/22
- Cobi O'Connell
- May 24, 2022
- 4 min read
After a long absence, I am back with another article covering the MLB main slate on FanDuel! As of recent, I went on a two week vacation and then took a two week absence from any sort of betting to rejuvenate myself, but I am fully back now. Even though we missed about half of the season, I would be lying if I said that my start to the MLB DFS season was anything other than abysmal. That seems to be the case with a lot of people within the industry as the new balls have affected both hitters and pitchers, and the start of the season always adds an extra layer of randomness. Regardless, I am confident that I will get back on track with my return. For tonight, we have a 12 game slate that is filled with plenty of strong pitching options beyond just the ones highlighted in this article. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!
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Weather Concerns:
No real weather concerns as of now!
Top Pitchers:
1) Corbin Burnes ($10600) -
Corbin Burnes has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball based on performance and availability the last two seasons. Following his Cy Young win last season, Burnes had a somewhat shaky debut to the season where he allowed 3 early runs, but he has been lights out since. In his 7 starts since that debut, Burnes has allowed over 2 runs in just one game, which was his most recent against the Braves. He has gone the 6 innings required to get the quality start bonus in each of those games, and has thrown double digit strikeouts 3 times. On the season, he totals a 2.45 SIERA on a 31.5% K rate and 17.9% swinging strike rate. Burnes gets the Padres tonight who have just a 89 wRC+ against righties and strike out at a 22.9% rate. With his ability to go long in games, dish strikeouts, and a plus match-up, Burnes is my favorite pitcher on the slate.
2) Dylan Cease ($9600) -
The most important feature of a DFS pitcher is their ability to mitigate runs while still dishing strikeouts, and Dylan Cease does just that. So far on the season, he has an absurd 36.8% strikeout rate with a 16.1% swinging strike rate. The reason why Cease is ranked just below Burnes on this slate is because of his tougher matchup against the Red Sox, and his inability to go 6 full innings often. Regardless, Cease's upside is as high as any pitchers on a given day.
3) Framber Valdez ($9900) -
Of all the expensive pitchers on this slate, Framber Valdez has the easiest matchup. Valdez should be able to expose the Guardians who have just a 80 wRC+ against lefties, and less than a .100 ISO. The reason why he is a tier below the previous pitchers is because he strikes out batters at a much lower rate. His strikeout rate currently sits at 19.7%, and he only gets swinging strikes at a 9.9% clip. However, Valdez makes up for his low K rate with his ability to go deep in games, as he has gone 6+ innings in each of his previous 5 starts.
Value Pitcher:
Blake Snell ($6000) -
I would strongly advise against playing Snell in cash games or bulk entry tournaments, but he is a very interesting option if mass entering large GPPs. Coming off the injured list, Blake Snell made his first start of the season last Wednesday and went 84 pitches. He struggled with his command in that game, but was at least healthy enough to throw a decent sample size while picking up 5 strikeouts. Blake Snell is always a risky option with his inconsistencies, but his strikeout ability keeps him a viable option at all times, especially with a wildly cheap price tag of $6000 tonight.
Other strong options: Zac Gallen ($10900), Walker Buehler ($9800), Sonny Gray ($8200), Jordan Montgomery ($7100)
Top Stacks:
1) Dodgers -
The Dodgers were one of the strongest stacks last night in their 10 run win, and they are my number one stack of the night on this slate. Sitting at 4.91, they carry the highest implied total of any team on the slate, which is expected when facing youngster Josiah Gray. Gray has showcased an ability to strike batters out effectively, but has struggled with power to start his career, which is something to take advantage of in DFS. His 4.03 SIERA isn't terrible, but he suffers 1.87 HR/9, and allows a pull rate of 42.6%. The Dodgers entire lineup is playable in the stack, but Mookie Betts is sizzling as of late, and Edwin Rios is a discounted power bat.
2) Astros
Much like Josiah Gray, Zach Plesac has struggled at suppressing power this season, which is why the Astros are my second favorite stack of the slate with their third highest projected run total. Plesac is allowing 1.40 HR/9 with a 48.5% pull rate and 4.89 SIERA. Of their hitters, I am most interested in stacking some combination of Alvarez, Tucker, Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, or Peña.
3) Twins
Even though it looks like there will be wind blowing towards the field in Minnesota tonight, the Twins are one of my favorite teams to stack on this slate. They are facing arguably the worst pitcher on the slate in Beau Brieske who has a poor 5.44 SIERA and is allowing 2.39 HR/9. When stacking the Twins, Byron Buxton is almost always a necessity, but Correa, Kepler, Sánchez, and Arraez are solid options, while Ryan Jeffers and Gilberto Celestino are in play at near minimum salaries.
Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Diamondbacks, Braves, Yankees, Angels
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