MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/1/22

When things are going good, they are going great. That quote has been true of my last week or so of MLB DFS, as our poor start to the season has really turned around recently. In that period, multiple lineups have been near takedown in smaller tournaments, many have doubled up or slightly profited, and only a few have completely missed. Regardless, this article is about providing insight on the slate today, not talking about what we have done. The main slate tonight is on the smaller side with 8 total games, so the pitching and stacking options are somewhat limited. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

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Weather Concerns:

LAA @ NYY - This is the only spot on the slate where there is a moderate level of concern in regards to a delay or postponement. There will be storms in New York around game time, but it is too early to tell their severity and if they will linger over the park. Pay attention to the forecast closer to lock.

SEA @ BAL, CIN @ BOS - There is a chance of light rain in these areas, but the risk of a delay or postponement is very minimal.

Top Pitchers:

1) Robbie Ray ($9700) -

With a strong matchup against a Baltimore team with just an 83 wRC+ and 26.2% strikeout rate against left handed pitchers, Robbie Ray is the top pitcher of the slate. Although Ray's strikeout rate has returned to expected with an average of 9.25 Ks in his last four games, he still isn't living up to the standards that we got from his Cy Young season just a year ago. His SIERA is a modest 3.50, but I would have predicted it to be lower than that coming into the season. Even though Robbie Ray has been giving up hard contact, his expected strikeout total tonight is too high to put him in anywhere other than the top spot, especially at a $9700 salary.

2) Nestor Cortes ($10800) -

Of all the pitchers on the slate, Nestor Cortes is having the best start to the 2022 season. Being the best pitcher on the slate always warrants ownership, even if he is the most expensive option and has a difficult matchup on paper. The Angels have a 110 wRC+ against lefties, but are striking out an average 22.9% clip. The matchup puts Cortes a tier under Ray because of the floor, although his upside is still very high.

3) Tarik Skubal ($10500) -

Rounding out my top three pitchers of the main slate is another lefty, Tarik Skubal. Skubal has drastically exceeded expectations this season with just a 2.91 SIERA across a 27.1% K rate. I normally wouldn't be on Skubal at an expensive $10500 salary against a good hitting team, but there aren't other options worth noting on this slate. Facing the Twins who boast a 114 wRC+ and only strikeout at a 20.5% rate against lefties, Skubal has a low floor, but his upside is still high. I prefer betting on a player rather than a matchup, which is why he rounds out the list.

Value Pitcher:

Bailey Ober ($8100) -

The only other pitcher on this slate I am interested in besides the three mentioned above his Bailey Ober, and he fulfills the requirements to qualify as a value pitcher. Ober has been a solid pitcher this season with a skill interactive ERA of 4.23, but he is only striking out batters at a 21.6% rate, and has gone 6 innings just one time. Those numbers would normally cause me to steer clear, but Ober draws the Tigers tonight, who have categorically awful hitting statistics. They have a 74 wRC+ against right handed pitchers, strikeout at a 24.3% rate, and aren't generating much power with just a .105 ISO. Usually, the ceiling would be capped for Bailey Ober, but I am not sure if there is any ceiling against this team right now.

Other strong pitching options: none

Top Stacks:

1) Red Sox -

Although Aaron Judge is my favorite hitter on this slate, the Red Sox are my favorite overall stack. After going on a hitting frenzy to start their series against the Orioles, the Sox have produced just one run in their last two games against poor pitchers from the Orioles and Reds. Facing Hunter Greene tonight, I would be more inclined to think they put up numbers more indicative to how they started last week instead of how they ended. Greene is a good pitching prospect, but like many young pitchers, he is allowing a ton of hard contact. His hard hit rate is 37.7%, pull rate is 40.2%, and he is allowing a whopping 3.05 HR/9 innings. Devers, Martinez, Bogaerts, and Story are the best spend ups, and Cordero is terrific value hitting leadoff tonight.

Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA, Aaron Judge 2018, CC BY-SA 2.0

2) Yankees -

*Update - mid/late inning delay or PPD possible, risky spot*

As mentioned while covering the Red Sox, Aaron Judge is my favorite hitter on the slate. Historically, Judge has smoked lefty pitchers, and this season has been no different as his ISO is .304 against them. Reid Detmers may dissuade some people from liking the Yanks as he threw a no-hitter earlier in the season, but his numbers haven't been anything to fear other than that. His SIERA is 4.55, and he is allowing a lot of fly balls with a pull rate of 40.7%, and 1.55 HR/9 allowed. The Yankees are very injured right now which makes the stacking options limited aside from Judge, Rizzo, and Torres, but they still rank well enough to be my second favorite stack on the slate in a hitter friendly park.

3) Mariners -

Of all the teams on the slate, the Mariners have arguably the best matchup on paper. I say arguably because although Kyle Bradish has an ERA of 7.31, his SIERA is nearly half of that at 3.71. Still, Bradish is allowing a lot of hard contact with a 45.1% hard hit rate, 41.5% pull rate, and 2.22 HR/9 allowed. The Mariners don't generate a lot of power aside from France and Suarez, but they still score runs above league average against righty pitching. France, Suarez, Rodriguez, and Crawford would be my main priority batters if stacking the Mariners tonight.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Brewers, Dodgers, White Sox