MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/10/22
- Cobi O'Connell
- Jun 10, 2022
- 5 min read
Following a two week stretch of considerable DFS profit, I have gone colder within the last week. Hopefully I can turn that around and start another strong stretch on tonight's huge slate. The baseball card for tonight features 15 total games, which means that every team in the league is available to target - the hitting and stacking options are endless. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!
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Weather Concerns:
TOR @ DET - A delay is possible due to showers and storms in the area, but postponement is very unlikely. I wouldn't consider this, or any other game on this slate, dangerous.
Top Pitchers:
1) Joe Musgrove ($10900) -
Joe Musgrove sits atop my best pitcher of the slate list because of his consistent production. Musgrove has eclipsed 40 FD points in all but two of his starts, and he still recorded 34 in each of those games. Joe Musgrove may not be the best option for tournaments as his ceiling is somewhat capped by his 24.80% strikeout rate, but his longevity and ability to shut down opposing offenses makes him the safest cash play. He draws a matchup against a Rockies team that has just an 85 wRC+ against righties, although they only strikeout at a 21.4% clip. Expect Musgrove to handle business once again, although he does bring a hefty price.
2) Luis Severino ($10200) -
Although Musgrove is the best cash play tonight, I slightly prefer my number two and three options in tournaments. Luis Severino has been stellar this season highlighted by his 27.6% K rate, 3.23 SIERA, and slate best 14.2% swinging strike rate. His matchup against the Cubs isn't easy by any means as they are slightly above average with a 101 wRC+ against righties, but they are a little strikeout prone with a 22.9% rate. In his last four starts, Severino has eclipsed 40 FD points on three occasions, including a dominant 61 point showing in his last contest. His combination of nasty stuff and matchup tonight creates for the highest ceiling on the slate, in my opinion.
3) Aaron Ashby ($8600) -
If you are looking for a combination of salary relief and immense upside, a DFS players dream, then look no further than Aaron Ashby. Ashby has recently been given a stable position in the Brewers' rotation, and he has not disappointed. In his last three starts, Ashby as averaged 42 FD points per game, although an immense 61 point showing weighs that up. Regardless, Ashby has the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the slate at 30.5%, and should have a leash with an upwards of 100 pitches. Although the Nationals strikeout at a very low 17.3% rate against lefties, I expect that number to come up as their wRC+ is just 90 against them, and they have virtually no power with a .088 ISO.
Value Pitcher:
José Berríos ($8400) -
Aaron Ashby is the true value play of the slate, but he will draw high ownership and fits within my top plays regardless of salary, so I went elsewhere for the best value title. I decided to give Berríos that label tonight, and I would not be afraid to pivot off of Ashby to him in some tournaments. Berríos has been wildly inconsistent this season with a 5.24 ERA and 4.24 SIERA, which makes him a strong GPP option due to his high ceiling but low floor. Regardless of if he is giving up runs or not, I would have expected his strikeout rate to be significantly higher than 19.8% as he has some good stuff, but that hasn't been the case. Even so, we have seen Berríos' ceiling as shown in his most recent game where he destroyed the Twins for 64 FD points with 13 strikeouts. Today, he has a dream matchup against a Tigers' squad that carries a shockingly terrible 69 wRC+ against righties with a high 25.0% strikeout rate.
Other strong pitching options: Pablo López ($10400), Triston McKenzie ($9800), Zac Gallen ($9400)
Top Stacks:
1) Blue Jays -
The Blue Jays are my top stack of the day, and it isn't entirely close. They carry the highest implied total of any team on the slate (5.25) with a dream matchup against Tigers' righty Elvin Rodriguez. Saying Rodriguez has been bad would be an understatement, as the underlying data shows that he has a 10.13 ERA, 4.65 SIERA, and is allowing opposing hitters a .308 average and a crushing 3.38 homers per game. The obvious Blue Jay core of Guerrero Jr., Springer, and Bichette are strong options, while Teoscar Hernández is almost a necessity at $2800, with Kirk and Espinal being phenomenal value plays as well.
2) Yankees -
Gerrit Cole infuriated DFS owners (including me) with one of the worst showings of his entire career against the Twins last night. This piece has nothing to do with Cole and everything to do with the Yankees hitters, but I had to let my anger out somewhere. Tonight, the Yankees have a desirable matchup against lefty pitcher Wade Miley. Historically, Miley hasn't allowed much strong contact against him, and this season has been no different as he has yet to give up a homerun, although he is just coming off the IR and has only pitched three games. Even still, Miley has a SIERA of 4.67, and is walking batters at a high 10.8% rate. Behind only the Jays, the Yankees implied total of 5.07 indicates that Vegas expects Miley to get hit around, and I would agree with that thesis. Judge, Stanton, Torres, and LeMahieu are lefty killers, while Rizzo is still a strong option, although I am not much interested in any other part of their lineup.
3) Orioles -
The final team to be included in my favorite stacks of the MLB slate tonight is the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles aren't usually a team who I would be interested in stacking, but they have juicy matchups against the Royals this series. Jonathan Heasley is on the mound for the Royals, and although he hasn't been entirely terrible with a 4.62 ERA, his 6.30 SIERA indicates that he may be getting lucky. Also, he is allowing a 30.5% hard contact rate and 41.5% fly ball rate which contributes to his 1.42 HR/9 allowed. On the Orioles, I am mostly interested in stacking the front half of their order in Hays, Mullins, Mountcastle, Mancini, and Santander.
Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Braves, Royals, Brewers, Red Sox
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