MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/13/22
- Cobi O'Connell
- Jun 13, 2022
- 5 min read
Following two weeks of significant DFS and betting profit, I struggled to find the green last week resulting in a frustrating stretch. With today marking a new week, I hope I can turn things around and get back to my cashing ways. Tonight's MLB card features 10 games with some highly regarded pitchers and stacks, although FanDuel made a pivotal mistake in their pricing, which will be discussed below. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!
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Weather Concerns:
CHW @ DET - There will be large storms in Detroit later tonight, but the game should be able to finish before they arrive. If by any chance they do affect the game, it would likely be in the later innings. I wouldn't put a big risk label on this one.
ATL @ WAS - Scattered storms in the area, but they should pass quickly if one lands over the park. A delay is possible, but once again, I wouldn't put much risk in this game.
Top Pitchers:
1) Lance Lynn ($5500) -
As mentioned in the opening, FanDuel made a slate changing mistake with their salaries tonight - that mistake is Lance Lynn. I think of this situation similar to when Taysom Hill was eligible at TE in DFS despite being that week's starting QB. Lynn was expected to make his season debut for the White Sox tomorrow, but with Kopech's injury yesterday, the team felt comfortable enough to remove him off the IR and start him a day early. FanDuel was not expecting this to happen, which means that Lance Lynn has the minimum pitcher salary of $5500 against the worst hitting team in the league vs. righties. Since Lynn has been out all season with injury, there is no data to supply him with for this season, but he finished third in the AL Cy Young voting just a season ago, and also carried a strong 27.5% strikeout rate. Lynn did struggle in his three rehab starts with a 9.00 ERA, but that isn't enough to dissuade me off of him with his ridiculous salary against a team with a laughable 65 wRC+ against right handed pitchers. I expect his leash to be around 90 pitches tonight, more than enough to make a splash. Lance Lynn is a cash and bulk entry tournament lock, but you can differentiate in single entries or if playing many lineups.
2) Aaron Nola ($10200) -
If there wasn't a marginal salary mistake with Lance Lynn tonight, then Aaron Nola would have been my top option on the slate. Aaron Nola has always carried high upside due to his strikeout ability (29.3%), but he has done an excellent job with reducing the number of runs allowed this season with his 3.50 ERA, but even more impressive 2.75 SIERA. The Marlins are not a walk-in-the-park matchup as indicated by their strong 115 wRC+ against righties, but I wouldn't expect that number to stay that high as the season progresses. Aaron Nola is capable of being lit up at times with four games of less than 25 FD points, but he has eclipsed 40 FD points six times, and I bank on upside in DFS.
3) Sandy Alcantara ($11300) -
Staying in the same game, Sandy Alcantara is my third favorite pitching option on tonight's baseball card. Sandy Alcantara has been unbelievably good this season as represented by his 1.61 ERA and opponent average of .189. The reason why I rank Nola above Alcantara is because his salary is $1100 higher, and his strikeout upside is not quite as strong (24.1%). Despite his strikeout percentage not being eye-popping, Alcantara has been a fantasy beast because of his longevity. In his last six affairs, he has pitched 7 innings, 8 innings, and 9 innings twice each, a miraculous feat. Perhaps even more impressive, he allowed just 3 runs across those games. The Phillies are far from an easy matchup, but if Alcantara pitches as well as he has been, he won't have any issues.
Value Pitcher:
Christian Javier ($8800) -
Lance Lynn is the obvious value play, but since that is obvious, he will draw high ownership. I like to have my value play be a lesser owned salary relieving option, which is why Christian Javier takes that title today. Javier will face off against a Rangers roster that boasts just a 88 wRC+ against righties, while striking out at a high rate of 23.6%. Christian Javier has experienced mixed results through his starts, but his slate-leading 30.4% K rate creates enough upside for him to deserve being in lineups, even if he is often unable to go deep into games.
Other strong pitching options: Alek Manoah ($10800), Darvish ($9700), Wood ($8600)
Top Stacks:
1) Blue Jays -
The Blue Jays are my favorite stacking option on the table, but I will lead this section by saying that all three of my top stacks are extremely close, rendering them interchangeable based on your personal preference. Of those stacks (TOR, ATL, HOU), I decided to give the slight edge to the Blue Jays because Bradish has consistently allowed runs, while Hearn and Gray have some strong performances. Bradish is allowing extensive barrels to ball as shown by a 43.5% hard hit rate and 42.6% pull rate, which has ultimately led to him surrendering 2.39 HR/9. His ERA of 6.45 showcases his struggles, although his SIERA is a respectable 3.97, but I consider that an anomaly to his issues. The usual bats of Guerrero Jr., Springer, and Bichette lead the way, but Hernandez, Kirk, Espinal, and Gurriel Jr. are all elite candidates at reduced prices.
2) Braves -
Much like the Blue Jays, the Braves draw a young pitcher who can generate strikeouts, but also surrenders hard contact at an extreme rate. That pitcher is Josiah Gray, and he is allowing 2.02 HR/9 across a 50.3% fly ball rate. Gray has been impressive in recent starts with just 2 earned runs in his last three games (16 innings), but those came against below-average teams, and the Braves are not that. Vegas seems to align with these beliefs as they gave the Braves a 5.36 implied total - the highest on the slate by slim margins. Anyone on the Braves roster is in play for DFS contests, but Matt Olson is my favorite on the team because of just how much power Gray has allowed to left-handed batters.
3) Astros -
The Astros have a matchup against Rangers lefty Taylor Hearn tonight, and they have already had success against him this season with 8 runs scored in just over 9 innings against him. Hearn has been about average at suppressing hard contact with 1.26 HR/9 allowed across a 37% hard hit rate, 40% pull rate, and 36% fly ball rate, but I still think the Astros can get to him easily. He walks a lot of batters (10.8%), and has a poor ERA of 5.40, with his SIERA not being much better. Altuve has crushed lefties all year which puts him atop my list of Astros batters, but Alvarez, Tucker, Bregman, Pena, and Gurriel are all prime options.
Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Twins, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Mariners
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