MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/20/22
- Cobi O'Connell
- Jun 20, 2022
- 5 min read
We have arrived at the start of another week of MLB action! We have a smaller sized 8 game slate to kickoff the week, but there are enough intriguing pitcher and hitting options to make this slate worth covering. There are no current risks for game issues due to weather, but it is worth noting that it is hot in Atlanta and Chicago, giving a slight boost to the bats there. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!
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Weather Concerns:
No weather concerns!
Top Pitchers:
1) Gerrit Cole ($10300) -
Gerrit Cole has enraged DFS owners on a couple of occasions so far this season, but the underlying data suggests that he has still been a stud across the larger sample. Sure, his three games of 12 or less FanDuel points are frustrating (I have been a victim of it too), but he has totaled 40+ in 9 of his 13 starts. His advanced metrics represent his success across the course of the season as well, which is evident in his 2.87 SIERA, 30.60% strikeout rate, and opponent average of .216. He draws the Rays tonight, and although they haven't been a great team to target in the last few years, you don't need to fear them with their current lineup. Against right-handed pitchers, they strikeout at a massive 25.00% rate, and generate runs below the league average with a 95 wRC+. Cole dominated them through 6 scoreless innings in his most recent start, and although familiarity is a concern for some people, I don't think that will be the case for Cole.
2) Corbin Burnes ($10800) -
Although the #2 and #3 pitchers in this article have had better seasons than Cole to this point, they have much more difficult matchups, which is why they are a tier below him on this slate. There is no denying Corbin Burnes' talent - he has a 2.68 skill interactive ERA, and generates substantial whiffs as shown by his 32.10% K rate and slate leading 16.70% swinging strike rate. That set of skills allows Burnes to be a strong play with immense upside no matter who he faces, but I have to downgrade him some while facing the Cardinals. The Cardinals are a very low strikeout team against righties (19.60%), and they have a solid 107 wRC+, which is a tough draw. However, Burnes was able to obliterate them in his one start against this season with 11 strikeouts across 7 scoreless innings. If you trust him to replicate that success to any degree, you can easily roster him tonight.
3) Shane McClanahan ($11200) -
Perhaps having the best season of any pitcher in the MLB, Shane McClanahan rounds out the last spot for my top pitchers of the day. Much like Burnes, there is no questioning what McClanahan has done, and he has done it in an even more dominating fashion. He has a 2.28 SIERA, 1.84 ERA, is holding opponent hitters to a .184 average, and has a ridiculous 35.20% strikeout rate. He has been the staple of DFS consistency with 29 points being his lowest outing of the season, while scoring 45+ FD points in 8 of his 13 starts. The reason why he is in this spot on this slate is because he is facing the best team in all of baseball, the Yankees. They have a 118 wRC+ against lefties and boast substantial power with a .209 ISO, although their strikeout rate of 23.90% does show a path to success. McClanahan should have a great game still, but his floor needs to be considerably lowered in case the Yankees bats come to play.
Value Pitcher:
José Berríos ($8800) -
The stacking options for tonight make it relatively easy to afford the top pitchers, so a value play shouldn't be needed for cash or mass entry lineups, but you can differentiate in other contests. If you are looking for the value route, Berríos at an $8800 salary stands out as the best option. After a rough start to the season, he has pitched very well in his recent affairs. In his last six starts, he has surpassed 35+ FD points in all but one game, which was the game he got lit up by the Angels. Over the course of the entire season, which does weigh him down, his SIERA is 4.03, ERA is 4.65, and his strikeout rate is just 20.50%. Even with those numbers, I can easily see him having a solid outing against a disappointing White Sox team. Against right-handed pitchers, they have just an 87 wRC+, although they strikeout at a low 20.10% clip.
Other pitching options: Yu Darvish ($10200), Max Fried ($9800), Logan Webb ($9400)
Top Stacks:
1) Red Sox -
Boasting a slate high 5.41 implied run total, the Red Sox stand out considerably as the best stacking spot of the day. On the mound against them is rookie Alex Faedo, and although he hasn't been terrible (4.28 ERA), his underlying metrics indicate that he might not be able to keep it up. His ground ball rate of 32.30% is the lowest of any pitcher tonight, which means that he is allowing a lot of balls in the air. A lot of fly balls equals more home run opportunities, which is the best hitting statistic for DFS players to target. Rafael Devers is a staple of the Boston stack, with Martinez, Bogaerts, Story, Verdugo, and Duran rounding out the other top options.
2) Angels -
Regardless of the team, if there was one pitcher on the slate that I would like to load up on batters against, it would be Kris Bubic. Bubic has been dreadful in nearly every manner this season - he allows a lot of runs (5.23 SIERA, 8.36 ERA), puts a lot of runners on base (.302 opponent average, 13.40% walk rate), and is giving up a lot of power (1.61 HR/9, 46.70% hard hit rate). That combination of bad creates for a hitters dream scenario. Although this scenario is ideal for the Angels, they simply don't have a ton of batters with pop against lefties. Trout, Ohtani, and Ward are essential if you take this stacking path, and Suzuki and Rengifo are excellent salary relievers at the minimum cost.
3) Blue Jays -
A Cy Young candidate just last season, Lance Lynn would not have been expected to have been a good pitcher to stack against this season, but he has struggled mightily since coming back from an injury. He is 35 years old which doesn't help with the cause, so it might be time to question how much he has left in the tank. Lynn struggled throughout his rehab stints in the minors, and did not look good against the worst team in the MLB against righties this season, the Tigers. In that game, he went just 4.1 innings and allowed 10 hits and 3 earned. There is small risk in this stacking spot as we have seen Lynn dominate before, I just don't see that happening with how he has looked so far, and while playing against a fearful Jays team. Guerrero Jr., Springer, Bichette, and Hernandez are the top options, with Chapman and Espinal providing value.
Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Cubs, Tigers, Pirates
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