MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/21/22

We are back with another day of beautiful baseball action! There are no weather concerns across the entirety of tonight's 13 games, but there are some hot temperatures with winds blowing out that creates for some solid hitting situations. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

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Weather:

TOR @ CHW - Winds blowing out with hot temperatures in Chicago - boost to hitters.

CLE @ MIN - Winds blowing out at 15 mph - boost to hitters.

Top Pitchers:

1) Nestor Cortes ($10500) -

Just a day after Gerrit Cole took my top pitcher spot and went on to have a no-hitter with 12 Ks through 7 innings, another Yankee pitcher finds himself atop my list - that pitcher is Nestor Cortes. Nestor Cortes has been an amazing story this season in which has elevated him into the hearts of many Yankees fans like myself, and it isn't hard to see why. He has a 1.94 ERA, 27.80% strikeout rate, and holds opponents to just a .190 average. His opponent, the Rays, have hit left-handed pitchers well this season which is distinct with their 103 wRC+ and very low 18.50% strikeout rate. However, the team has been decimated by injuries recently, and that only worsened last night when Margot and Kiermaier hit the IR. I don't envision Cortes struggling against the lineup they are putting out, which is why he is placed here. He might not have quite as high of strikeout upside as other options, but his floor is higher, making him a stellar cash play. This slate lacks a clear SP1 like many other slates, but there are still quality players to analyze.

2) Sean Manaea ($9900) -

Sean Manaea is my second ranked pitcher on this course of games, and he isn't far behind Cortes. The only reason why I have Cortes slightly above him is because I view the current Rays lineup as less of a threat than the Diamondbacks, even if the underlying data would suggest otherwise. The D-Backs have a poor 89 wRC+ against lefties, which is no shock as they like to throw out a substantial number of left-handed batters in their usual lineups. Also, they strikeout at a pitcher-friendly 23.40% rate, which provides Manaea a high-ceiling tonight. Manaea has been prone to giving up runs due to hard contact (3.95 ERA, 39.60% hard hit rate), but the Diamondbacks don't bring much pop against lefties. Manaea could easily replace Cortes in the first spot if you think his matchup is more appealing - I favor the other side, but just slightly.

3) Dylan Cease ($9600) -

Dylan Cease is a prime example of an ideal GPP play on this slate - he has a very high ceiling, but also a very low floor, which will drive down ownership. Of course, that creates for major risk with Cease, but sometimes risks need to be taken to win the big money. Dylan Cease will have the difficult task of shutting down the Blue Jays tonight as they carry a nice 109 wRC+ and .737 OPS against right-handed pitchers. However, they strikeout at a modest 21.50% rate, and walk very little, which boosts Cease substantially as his main issues arrive from walking batters (11.50% walk rate). I would not be surprised if Cease gets lit up in this spot, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he ends up as the highest scoring pitcher - his 2.91 ERA and whopping 32.90% K rate create for limitless upside.

Value Pitcher:

Spencer Strider ($8700) -

I have been in love with Spencer Strider's game since he entered the big leagues this season. At their current states, he is a similar player to Cease as he produces a ton of whiffs (38.60% strikeout rate), but also can struggle with going deep into games because of his walk issues (11.90% walk rate). Nonetheless, he has been spectacular since entering the league as indicated by a stellar 2.62 SIERA, 2.45 ERA, and as mentioned, a ridiculous 38.60% strikeout rate. Those numbers will generate DFS interest no matter the situation, but he doesn't come without some issues. Strider has yet to go a full 6 innings, although he has gone 5.2 in both of his recent two starts. Also, he draws the Giants who can work walks (.326 OBS), and have played well against righties overall (107 wRC+), so they could take advantage of his current weaknesses. Regardless, Strider has upside at a friendly salary, which is always something to consider.

Other pitching options: Kevin Gausman ($10200), Zac Gallen ($9200), Martín Pérez ($9200)

Top Stacks:

1) Cardinals -

U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Nathaniel Hudson, Paul Goldschmidt (5696076) (cropped), marked as public domain, more details on Wikimedia Commons

Sitting atop my favorite stacks of the day is the St. Louis Cardinals against Brewers newly acquired pitcher Chi Chi González. Surprisingly, the Cardinals have only the 8th highest run total of teams on this slate (4.71), but they should be able to have success against González. Generally, González does an excellent job of mitigating fly balls (55.60% ground ball rate, 25.90% fly ball rate), but when batters do manage to get under him, they usually have success. He allows a 44.40% hard contact rate and is allowing 2.57 HR/9, which shows that when he isn't forcing ground balls, he is getting cooked. That is also shown in his poor 7.71 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 12.90% K rate, and wild opposing average of .387. I expect the Cardinals to produce runs tonight, with Goldschmidt, Arenado, Yepez, Gorman, and Donovan being the main beneficiaries.

2) Red Sox -

In a much different situation then the Cardinals, Vegas is expecting the Red Sox to score runs tonight, which is evident in their slate leading 5.42 expected run total. I clearly like this stack as I have them ranked second on the slate, but it doesn't go without some downfalls. The Red Sox are facing Brieske who doesn't carry the greatest peripheral stats (4.70 SIERA, 5.56 FIP, 1.98 HR/9, 41.90% hard hit rate, 42.10% fly ball rate), but he has pitched very well in his recent affairs. Across his last three starts and 18.2 innings, Brieske has only given up 2 runs, and two of those games came against the Blue Jays and Yankees whom are fearful opponents. Even with those recent starts, the data over the course of the entire season suggest that the Red Sox can take advantage of him. Devers, Martinez, Duran, Bogaerts, Story, and Verdugo are all solid hitting options.

3) Twins -

Rounding out the last spot on my top stacks are the Twins, who get an enticing matchup against Aaron Civale who was just activated off the IR. Civale hasn't pitched in nearly a month, and even when he was fully healthy, he was struggling. Across the course of the entire season, Civale has a 7.84 ERA, .290 opponent average, and is allowing balls in the air with a 1.74 HR/9 allowed, 45.00% fly ball rate, and just a 32.00% ground ball rate. If the Twins can make contact, they will have success. Buxton, Correa, Kepler, Sanchez, and Arraez are my favorite bats to target.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Angels, Orioles, Braves, Pirates