MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/22/22

Tonight's baseball card is on the smaller side with 9 total games, which makes the pitching and hitting options limited. There are weather concerns in the WSN-BAL game which could restrict the slate even further, so each lineup choice tonight is even more critical than usual. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

REMINDER: RTs on the article post on twitter at @SportsVerseHQ are appreciated, as well as following my personal Twitter, @cobioconnell. If you would like to see my lineup package for the NBA/NFL/MLB seasons, message me there. Thank you!

Weather:

WSN @ BAL - There will be rain and storms in Baltimore throughout a large duration of the game tonight, but it is too early to tell whether they will directly affect the park or not. There is a moderate to high risk of delay or postponement right now - pay attention to the forecast closer to lock.

SFG @ ATL - Winds blowing out and 95+ in temperature - boost the hitters.

Top Pitchers:

1) Shohei Ohtani ($10000) -

Scott U, Shohei Ohtani (48343515351) (cropped), CC BY-SA 2.0

In yesterday's article, I touched upon how some slates don't have a clear cut best pitching option; that isn't the case tonight - Shohei Ohtani is in a tier of his own. There are some other pitchers on this slate who are very talented, but they are all in vastly difficult situations, making them tough to trust. Ohtani is the only ace who provides strong upside and a favorable matchup tonight. There hasn't been much chatter about Ohtani's pitching this season, but he has been stellar. He boasts an impressive 2.86 SIERA, 3.28 ERA, and brings the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher on the slate at 31.20%. As mentioned, he has the only plus matchup of all the pitchers today. The Royals don't strike out a whole lot against righties (21.10%), but they are well below the league average at generating runs (91 wRC+). Shohei Ohtani is a cash game lock while still being my favorite GPP pitcher on the slate.

2) Carlos Rodón ($10500) -

There is a big drop off between Ohtani and my second ranked pitcher, Carlos Rodón. Rodón has been stellar in his last two games with FD scorings of 58 and 52, and his peripherals over the course of the season are strong. However, Rodón is a big risk for DFS tonight not because of who he is, but for just about every other reason. In Atlanta, winds are blowing out to center and the temperature is just short of 100 degrees, which provides a significant boost to batters. Perhaps even more concerning, the Braves have a mountainous 126 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, which is third best in the league. Even with these circumstances, I gave Rodón this spot because the other options are very thin, and he is still a great pitcher. Although they smoke lefties, it is worth noting that the Braves do strike out at 23.80% clip against them, which provides solid upside for a pitcher who dishes a 30.50% K rate himself. Play with caution.

3) Tarik Skubal ($9600) -

Much like Rodón, Tarik Skubal wouldn't make my pitching list on a normal slate, but there just aren't enough appealing choices. After starting off the season in dominant fashion, Skubal has struggled some in his recent three starts as he has given up 12 runs across 16 innings. Still, his numbers across the span of the season show a 3.10 SIERA, 3.13 ERA, and 26.70% strikeout rate, so perhaps this recent slump isn't likely to continue. Once again, like other pitchers today, he has a very tough matchup against a Red Sox team that has a 113 wRC+ against lefties, while striking out a relatively low 21.50% rate. This spot is far from safe for Skubal, but risks will have to be taken if you want to differentiate from Ohtani.

Value Pitcher:

George Kirby ($8800) -

The choice to make George Kirby my value pitcher on this slate was an easy one as he is the only other decent pitcher who comes with a plus matchup. He will be on the mound against the struggling Athletics, who total just a 72 wRC+ and have a decently high 23.60% strikeout rate against righties. Kirby himself isn't too appealing of a DFS pitcher, but he isn't troublesome either. He has a 3.36 SIERA, 3.56 ERA, and a mediocre 22.90% strikeout rate. In most circumstances, his ability to produce whiffs would drive me away from DFS ownership, but in this matchup, he has the upside to rack him up. George Kirby is my second favorite pitcher to target in DFS contests tonight, which is not something I was expecting to say this season.

Other pitching options: Triston McKenzie ($8600)

Top Stacks:

1) Cubs -

While most of the top pitchers are facing top offenses tonight, most of the teams facing bottom pitchers are bottom offenses. That creates for a plethora of interesting lineup combinations, which should be fun to look at. I usually would not be inclined to have the Cubs take my top stack of the day title, but they have a beautiful matchup against Jerad Eickhoff. Eickhoff has yet to pitch in the majors this season, but he did on a couple of instances in 2021, and the results were not good. He totaled ridiculously high ERA and FIP numbers of 8.69 and 9.78, allowed opponent hitters a .330 average, and gave up hard contact to just about anyone as he allowed 4.12 HR/9, a 47.40% hard hit rate, and forced ground balls at just a 27.60% rate. All of these numbers factor into a dream scenario for hitters, and I want in on that. The bottom half of the Cubs lineup doesn't bring much pop, so Contreras, Happ, Morel, Wisdom, and Ortega are my top priorities.

2) Orioles -

There is a good chance that the Orioles and Nationals won't be able to play tonight due to weather, but if they are able to, the Orioles batters have a fantastic opportunity. They draw the start against lefty Patrick Corbin who has been a popular target to pick on in both of the previous two seasons. Corbin does do a great job at limiting balls in the air as indicated by his 47.80% ground ball rate and 30.40% fly ball rate, but when he does get elevated, he is getting hit hard with a 44.40% hard hit rate. Those numbers combine to him allowing 1.42 HR/9, which is something to work with. However, the more enticing part to the batters is that Corbin has a 6.59 ERA this season, while allowing hitters a .318 average. Those numbers are something that any team can take advantage of, and although the Orioles aren't a powerhouse, they aren't an awful offense either. Nevin, Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, and Mancini stand out as the players with the most upside.

3) Cardinals -

Eric Lauer started his 2022 campaign in dominant fashion as he allowed just 6 runs while striking out 42 batters across his first five starts. Those numbers don't represent a pitcher that I would have any interest in stacking against, but he hasn't been able to uphold that level of success. Lauer has allowed 12 runs in his two recent starts, and those came against the Reds and Nationals, both of whom aren't dangerous teams. The Cardinals are a much better offense than those two teams, especially against lefties, where they have a 118 wRC+. Across the entire season, Lauer has allowed a 43.40% hard hit rate and 44.80% fly ball rate, which indicates that he may have gotten lucky even when pitching well. If in the lineup, Goldschmidt is my top target, with Arenado, Gorman, Pujols, and Carlson all hitting lefties well too.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Angels, Twins, Pirates