MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/27/22

After a few days absence, I am back covering tonight's stretch of baseball action. The main slate tonight covers 9 total games, which makes the slate average in size. That somewhat limits the pitching options, although there are plenty of stacks I would like to target. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

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Weather:

OAK @ NYY - The forecast shows rain and storms in New York during the duration of the game. It is tough to tell if it will affect the ability to play the game, so put a moderate risk on the spot.

Top Pitchers:

1) George Kirby ($9000) -

There are some slates where pitching is difficult to dissect in terms of there not being a clear cut number one pitcher - this slate certainly fits the mold for being one of those. In my most recent article, I touched upon how I didn't expect George Kirby to be within the top ranks of pitchers on any slate, and here he is as my favorite pitcher overall. The usual top arms in López, Gausman, and Giolitio all either have a tough matchup or have been struggling as of late, which makes us look elsewhere for value. In his MLB debut season, Kirby has pitched well with a 3.12 ERA and 23.30% strikeout rate. Although those numbers are solid, they wouldn't be enough for him to be a top option on most slates, but this isn't most slates. Of the playable pitchers, Kirby has one of the more appealing matchups against an Orioles team that totals a 91 wRC+ and strikes out at a 23.60% clip.

2) Martín Pérez ($9700) -

Martín Pérez is having a fantastic season late into a career that most would consider average. That suggests that there might be negative regression in store for him, but with how consistent he has been, I won't put much thought into it until it occurs. Still, Martín Pérez is not someone that I have been much interested in targeting because of his low strikeout rate (20.10%), but it hasn't stopped him from producing. Disregarding his first two starts of the season, he has eclipsed 34 FanDuel points in all but one start, while also showing upside with four starts of 46+ points. The Royals actually hit lefties well with a 104 wRC+ and miniscule 17.60% strikeout rate, but I am not fearful of their announced lineup tonight.

3) Jordan Montgomery ($9200) -

Once again, Jordan Montgomery at $9200 is not a DFS play that would usually appeal to me, but tonight is different. The upside of Montgomery is very capped as he hasn't racked up 6 or more strikeouts in 14 consecutive games, but his matchup is too nice to not mention. The Athletics have been one of the worst offenses all season and although they hit lefties better, they still have just an 88 wRC+ and 23.00% strikeout rate against them. There is weather risk in this game, so be sure to check the forecast closer to lock if interested in rostering him.

Value Pitcher:

Lucas Giolito ($8000) -

Being the talented pitcher that he is, it is unusual that Lucas Giolito fits within the value category, but his $8000 salary tonight certainly puts him in the conversation. I don't think his salary is a surprise based off just how much he has struggled as of late, but it does create for a risky but high-upside GPP option. In his last two starts, Giolito has been torched by the Astros and Blue Jays giving up 15 earned across 10 innings. Still, he has the highest strikeout rate (27.20%) of any pitcher on the slate, giving him upside against an Angels team that strikes out at a 26.20% rate, even though they score runs (106 wRC+) effectively.

Other pitching options: Pablo López ($10000), Kevin Gausman ($9500), Adam Wainwright ($8500)

Top Stacks:

1) Dodgers -

While the pitchers tonight are difficult to separate, the stacks are quite easy. The three stacks I mention in this section are distinctively tiered in each of their respected spots, so the top targets are obvious. Even without Mookie Betts, the Dodgers are still a fearful hitting squad, and they get the massive park boost at Coors Field tonight. The Dodgers have been priced up for this spot, but with the pitchers being cheaper than usual, they aren't too tough to get. They draw the start against Kuhl who has a decent ERA of 3.95 and doesn't get blown up by hard contact, but their implied total is still head and shoulders above the next best team at 6.53. Freeman, Trea Turner, Smith, Taylor, Muncy, and Bellinger are my favorite hitters to target in this spot.

2) Blue Jays -

D. Benjamin Miller, Bo Bichette at bat, March 25, 2019 (cropped), CC0 1.0

If there wasn't a Coors Field game tonight, it would be easy to label the Blue Jays as the top stack against Connor Seabold. The Blue Jays carry the second highest team total on the slate at 5.34, which is still a lofty total. Seabold hasn't pitched much in the majors, but in his one start in 2021, he struggled mightily with a 8.76 SIERA, 6.00 ERA, and allowed 3 HRs. Those are metrics that the strong Jays offense should be able to take advantage of. All of Guerrero Jr., Springer, Bichette, Hernandez, Kirk, Gurriel Jr., and Chapman are within consideration tonight.

3) Rangers -

Kris Bubic has been a popular target to stack against for me this season, and tonight is no different. He has struggled in nearly every way possible as shown by a 7.41 ERA, .295 opponent average, and 1.59 HR/9 allowed across a 48.10% hard hit rate. Although they aren't a terrific offense, the Rangers hit lefties quite well, which adds to the appeal even more. Seager, Heim, Garver, Lowe, and Semien are the hitters with the most upside in this situation.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Yankees, Angels, Twins, Mariners