MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/29/22

Tonight's baseball coverage features seven total games, making this slate one of the smaller sized ones. As on every small slate, each lineup choice you make matters even more since ownership is usually more tight in these circumstances. The Dodgers have let DFS owners down in the past two days, but it is tough to pass on them once again tonight. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!

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Weather:

CIN @ CHC - Wrigley winds blowing in at just under 10 MPH. Downgrade to the batters.

Top Pitchers:

1) Shohei Ohtani ($10500) -

Although tonight's slate is on the smaller side, we still have numerous different pitchers that are appealing to target in DFS formats. For a number of different factors, Shohei Ohtani is the obvious top arm of the slate. All of the other aces priced over $10000 have relatively difficult matchups, but Ohtani draws the White Sox. Coming in to the season, most expected the White Sox to be one of the stronger teams in the entirety of baseball, but they carry just a 90 wRC+ against righties, and don't put much pop on the ball with a .115 ISO. They don't strike out a ton as indicated by their 20.00% K rate, but Ohtani has dominated teams who strike out less in the past. He has been phenomenal during 2022 with slate leading totals of a 2.67 SIERA and 33.00% strikeout rate, and is coming off of an incredible 73 point game against the Royals. Ohtani is your cash game pitcher, and is still my top target in tournaments.

2) Sandy Alcantara ($11000) -

Sandy Alcantara is not the strongest strikeout pitcher (23.00%), but his upside is just as high as any other ace because of his ability to go deep into games. Alcantara has gone 7 innings or further in each of his last 9 starts, which has included 4 starts of 50+ FD points. The Cardinals are far from an ideal opponent (106 wRC+, .718 OPS, 20.50% strikeout rate vs. righties), but Alcantara has dealt with strong opponents all year. Within those last 9 starts, he has faced the Mets twice, Braves twice, and the Phillies, all of whom are tough matchups. With a 1.95 ERA and .195 opponent average, the leading NL Cy Young candidate is my second favorite pitcher on the slate, even in a tough situation.

3) Kyle Wright ($10400) -

Kyle Wright has been fantastic in his first season given real opportunity as shown by a 3.18 ERA, 2.90 FIP, and 26.60% strikeout rate. All of those statistics point towards DFS success, and he has had just that with a 36.66 FD point average. Kyle Wright will be on the mound against the Bryce Harper-less Phillies tonight, which makes them a significantly less fearful opponent. On the year against righties, the Phillies have a 98 wRC+ and strikeout around the league average at 22.40%, but those numbers include Harper in the lineup. In my eyes, Kyle Wright is the second safest pitcher on the slate while still providing elite upside.

Value Pitcher:

Justin Steele ($7600) -

I will start this segment by saying that I personally have no interest in rostering a value pitcher with the numerous big arms at the top, but I still need to include this section for those who are not adverse to risk. If you are a dangerous fantasy player who wants to load up on bats today, then Justin Steele should be on the top of your list. Steele has been far from elite this season as indicated by a 4.59 ERA and .253 opponent average, but he has shown glimpses of elite upside in some games. Steele has totaled 3 games with 8+ strikeouts which has resulted in 26, 42, and 49 FD point performances. Winds are blowing in at Wrigley which substantially benefits the pitchers, and the Reds are slightly below league average at hitting lefty pitchers.

Other pitching options: Alek Manoah ($10800), Julio Urías ($9600), Hunter Greene ($9100)

Top Stacks:

1) Dodgers -

Ian D'Andrea, Max Muncy LA Dodgers 2018 (cropped), CC BY-SA 2.0

*Cue the Joker meme* Here we go. The Dodgers have been my top stack in each of the last two slates, and they went on to score just 4 total runs in those games. I wasn't the only one to get burned by them as they were deservingly popular against below-average pitchers at Coors Field, but it doesn't ease the pain in the slightest. Even with those frustrating performances, the Dodgers deserve to be the number one stack again. They have the obvious boost of playing at Coors, and their implied total of 6.56 is more than a run and a half higher than the second highest total on the slate. Germán Márquez is a good pitcher and has been better as of late, but the underlying data over the course of the season doesn't lie. He totals a 5.58 ERA, .282 opponent average, and is allowing 1.56 HR/9 across a 45.00% hard hit rate, although he is good at limiting fly balls. Nonetheless, this matchup is ideal for the Dodgers, and ownership should be down a little from frustrated players. Freeman, T. Turner, Smith, Muncy, Bellinger, and Taylor are the top targets.

2) Braves -

There is a substantial drop-off in stacking upside from the Dodgers, but the Braves are a team I like tonight. Their 4.79 implied run total is the third highest on the slate, and they get to face a left-handed pitcher, which they usually feast upon. Ranger Suárez does an excellent job of suppressing hard contact and limiting fly balls, but he allows a lot of base runners as indicated by a .266 opponent average and 9.70% walk rate. Suárez can struggle to go far into games, and the Phillies bullpen is below league average, which is another factor to benefit in the favor of Atlanta. The Braves have a plethora of batters who smoke lefties, so Riley, Swanson, Contreras, d'Arnaud, Duvall, Olson, and Harris II are all hitting options.

3) Guardians -

Although they carry just the sixth highest team total on the slate, the Guardians are my third stacking option against the Twins' Dylan Bundy. Bundy is not the same pitcher that we frequently picked on a season ago, but he is still far from an elite arm. His 4.80 ERA is one of the worst on the slate, he allows plenty of balls in play with just a 17.90% strikeout rate and 4.70% walk rate, and is not opposed to allowing power. This year, he has allowed 1.50 HR/9, and is allowing a 42.30% fly ball rate and 37.40% hard hit rate. Ramirez, Naylor, Giminez, Gonzalez, Reyes, and Kwan are all batters I am comfortable in targeting.

Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Rockies, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs