MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel 6/30/22
- Cobi O'Connell
- Jun 30, 2022
- 4 min read
My article formats are usually centered around analyzing the main slate for each day, but with today's main only spanning five games, I decided to break down all the games over the course of the day. That includes the three earlier games on top of the five from the main slate. Let's dive into my breakdown of the MLB main slate on FanDuel!
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Weather:
CIN @ CHC - Hot day with Wrigley winds blowing out at 10-15 MPH. Big boost to hitters.
ATL @ PHI - Winds blowing out at 5-10 MPH. Slight boost to hitters.
Early Pitchers:
1) Aaron Nola ($10800) -
The three games on the early slate are MIN @ CLE, ATL @ PHI, and NYY @ HOU, all of which are good to great hitting teams. With every pitcher having a difficult matchup, I am more focused on the pitcher himself for this slate. This season, Aaron Nola has been the strongest pitcher of those options. He boasts a 2.77 SIERA, 29.2% strikeout rate, and is holding opponents to just a .209 average. Those peripherals have resulted in Nola scoring 52, 52, 37, 52, 24, and 62 FD points across his last six starts. There is no doubt that the Braves are a fearful opponent, but they do strikeout at a high 25.5% clip, which leads to significant upside for Nola.
2) Shane Bieber ($10100) -
Shane Bieber is not far behind Nola in performance during 2022. He has a 3.08 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and registers a 25.6% strikeout rate. The Twins may seem like an easier opponent than the Braves on the surface, but their 116 wRC+ against righties is higher, while they also strikeout less at a 22.6% rate. With Aaron Nola's higher strikeout upside in this matchup, I had to rank Bieber just behind him. Nonetheless, he is the second best pitching option in the earlier games.
Main Slate Pitchers:
1) Logan Gilbert ($10400) -
Logan Gilbert was the easy choice to take the top pitching spot on tonight's main slate. Although Joe Musgrove has been the slightly better pitcher this season, their matchups are on the complete opposite spectrum. Musgrove draws a vastly difficult matchup against the Dodgers, whereas Gilbert has a cupcake walk against the Athletics. Logan Gilbert's 2022 campaign has been significantly more impressive than his 2021 one, as he is up on nearly every metric. He totals a 2.44 ERA, 24.9% strikeout rate, and is allowing just a .219 opponent average. He has registered these numbers while mostly facing some of the top offenses in the league, so he should be able to feast tonight against an A's squad that totals just a 73 wRC+ and strikes out a 23.8% rate against right-handed pitchers.
2) Joe Musgrove ($11100) -
Although Joe Musgrove has just about as tough of a matchup as a pitcher could possibly draw, the third highest priced pitcher on the slate is Graham Ashcraft who is risky already, but also has to deal with the Wrigley winds tonight. That leaves Joe Musgrove as the only other pitcher I am interested in rostering beneath Gilbert, and I can feel somewhat comfortable with him despite the Dodgers matchup. Musgrove has dominated opponents this season with a 2.12 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and .202 opponent average. That strikeout rate isn't ideal, but in a similar situation to Sandy Alcantara, he makes up for it by going deep into games. He has gone 6+ innings in every start this season, and has scored 40+ FD points in 10/13 games. That level of consistency should generate DFS interest no matter the opponent.
Other pitching options: Luis Severino ($10000), Graham Ashcraft ($9000), Adrian Houser ($8400)
Top Early Stack:
1) Guardians -
As I mentioned in the pitchers section, the three early games today feature MIN @ CLE, ATL @ PHI, and NYY @ HOU, all of whom are strong hitting teams. However, the pitchers in these games are Nola, Severino, Garcia, Bieber, and Anderson, all of whom are good or great pitchers. The one pitcher not named there was Chris Archer, and although he has been good recently, he is by far the easiest of those named to stack against. Archer has limited runs in recent appearances, but I am not sure how much longer that will hold given his low strikeout rate (18.6%), and allowance to hard contact and fly balls (42.1% and 42.6% rates). That leaves the Guardians as the one stack I can feel somewhat comfortable rostering on the early slate of action.
Top Main Stacks:
1) Reds -
It is rare that the Reds would qualify as my top stack on any slate, but provided their circumstances and the limited options across a five game stretch, they take the throne tonight. As aforementioned, it is hot with winds blowing out at Wrigley field, which gives a substantial boost to pitchers who allow fly balls. Graham Ashcraft of the Red does a fantastic job of forcing ground balls which lowers my interest in the Cubs although they carry the slates highest implied total, but Kyle Hendricks allows balls in air, which makes me all over the Reds. On the season, Hendricks brings a 4.90 ERA and is allowing a 43.00% fly ball rate, which means that we can expect some balls to leave the park tonight.
2) Cubs -
Even though I just said my interest on stacking the Cubs is less than what the field's expected ownership is, they still fit the criteria to fill in as my second favorite stack on the main slate. This spot was a toss up with the Rays, but I ultimately gave the Cubs the spot because of their slate leading 5.42 implied total, and because of the weather. As I also mentioned, Ashcraft does a good job of limiting air time as indicated by a 57.5% ground ball rate and 23.1% fly ball rate, but does allow a lot of balls in play as his strikeout rate currently sits at a miniscule 15.8%, and he doesn't allow many walks with just a 4.1% rate. If the Cubs have a lot of opportunities to put the ball in play given the weather, the peripherals for Ashcraft won't matter as much.
Secondary Stacks/One-offs: Rays, Pirates, Phillies, Blue Jays
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